TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x8c96…e71f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
56
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Champions League, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 54 out of 100; worst Premier League at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT2035%7 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$71
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.6
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$283Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+38.6%+$109.14
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$210.26
Will Iran strike Israel on March 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+126.6%+$126.57
Will Iran strike Israel on March 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+104.3%+$104.29
Will Iran strike Israel on March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+95.8%+$95.81
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+222.6%+$24.48
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$48
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+216%+$179.31
Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$32
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2024, EDT-100%-$34.4
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
Will Israel target an Iranian oil or gas facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT+42.9%+$9
Netanyahu out by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$50
All 20 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-65%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$272.83
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$172
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$333Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$333
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$81
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$34.15
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
All 11 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick53cpaid-46.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+122%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$9.47
Will Juventus beat RB Leipzig?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2024, EDT+212.5%+$40.35
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$36
Goyat vs. Nunesbacked Nunes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Grand Prix Hassan II: Aleksandar Vukic vs Taha Baadibacked Taha Baadi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$162.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trail Blazers vs. Clippersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$47.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+86.9%+$93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Binance or Bybit list $MOODENG by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT+53.8%+$10.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.9
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.