TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$983,495
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,075,334

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $983,495 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 688 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe64f…44a5backed Yes58c131,117$76,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76,300.051225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa84b…5055backed No46c60,798$27,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,034.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+119%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked No50c54,212$26,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,346.2316743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd909…fd75backed No60c38,673$23,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,654.092050%10 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4dfd…6e4abacked No73c20,709$15,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,666.073770.3%26 W · 11 L+10.0wins+0.27per pick43cpaid+109.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xd6f1…11eebacked Yes60c19,939$11,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,990.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bd4…8acabacked Yes34c19,550$6,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,604.98450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ec…29cdbacked No72c16,961$12,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,711.212528%7 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes74c16,464$12,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,201.437740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x054b…2339backed No31c15,301$4,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,494.852445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe900…ee2ebacked No80c14,246$11,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,893.763036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbeb…e6e0backed No56c13,033$7,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,704.56742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb478…b6d5backed No48c12,885$6,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,670.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+107.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x210f…9d6abacked No47c12,710$6,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,707.542065%13 W · 7 L+4.6wins+0.23per pick42cpaid+120.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed Yes57c12,071$6,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,885.67955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1513…5208backed No59c12,056$7,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,995.511926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-57.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb21c…e00cbacked No43c11,016$4,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,240.71966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+68%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac61…4680backed No49c10,227$5,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,215.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5f…a958backed No50c10,010$5,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,004.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes51c10,001$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1003941%16 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f4a…8494backed Yes50c9,847$4,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,923.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x458d…178fbacked Yes51c9,829$5,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,013.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No38c9,773$3,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,040.097247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No51c9,640$4,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,687.0751138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes50c9,443$4,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,678.839815.3%15 W · 83 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-61.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8081…6d62backed No40c9,221$3,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,528.42552%13 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x054b…8477backed Yes60c9,180$5,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,504.683324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b44…5333backed Yes24c8,494$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,016.16137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-81.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc249…3e9abacked Yes32c7,050$2,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,229.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4457…f3e2backed Yes37c6,500$2,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,404.982343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21d9…0e65backed Yes53c6,422$3,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,395.345121.6%11 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked No55c6,307$3,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,849.712263.6%14 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa9f6…8e62backed No66c6,173$4,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,087.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcb…ee85backed No45c6,102$2,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,356.17366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+57.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes32c6,000$1,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9308125.9%21 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1dc…7283backed Yes55c5,539$3,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,043.881717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-2.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes38c5,380$2,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,041.368037.5%30 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8630…fe33backed Yes40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No43c4,998$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,848.468749.4%43 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes21c4,898$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.935121.6%11 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes27c4,665$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.7277636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb620…dd7abacked No24c4,169$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,185.921241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce08…28bdbacked Yes58c3,847$2,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,230.152520%5 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-44.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7108…7492backed Yes75c3,765$2,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,819.991330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-37.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda47…f40abacked No70c3,653$2,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094.52850%4 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-31%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x814a…25adbacked No56c3,601$2,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,597.365743.9%25 W · 32 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8764…6d8fbacked Yes45c3,595$1,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,617.75425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-68.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44e…711bbacked No53c3,594$1,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,702.19666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7d4…8c0dbacked No79c3,416$2,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.231457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick67cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0163…8579backed Yes24c3,132$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed Yes60c2,994$1,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,784.446137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5405…3d7cbacked Yes41c2,954$1,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,211.311010%1 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-71.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed No49c2,947$1,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,504.451154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes60c2,894$1,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,742.618137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes59c2,882$1,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,698.48837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7292…772dbacked No71c2,871$2,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2873…4ad3backed Yes79c2,703$2,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,122.991450%7 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a4c…54e7backed Yes69c2,697$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,859.9670%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked No65c2,673$1,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.591844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a36dbacked No54c2,635$1,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,203.281040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-40.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8823…4c34backed No76c2,629$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb61…a3aabacked No44c2,614$1,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,457.35475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+88.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d55…5ea3backed Yes40c2,522$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…bcc9backed No71c2,500$1,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.51546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49d7…5c2dbacked Yes48c2,500$1,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,192.28560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes11c2,474$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.147142.3%30 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb0d…d6f9backed No8c2,449$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,242.941758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+56.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1820…e3f7backed No47c2,440$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,300.193850%19 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No54c2,402$1,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.7314724.5%36 W · 111 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No26c2,386$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,757.414257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa1d7…e17ebacked No66c2,381$1,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.98837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-41.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x09df…5ca9backed No28c2,361$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,689.14785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.41per pick45cpaid+102.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked No35c2,322$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,511.12540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes12c2,286$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.335836.2%21 W · 37 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+73%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bd1…7df8backed Yes14c2,270$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.88333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+57.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked No19c2,250$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,824.99944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Yes44c2,218$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.18520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-56.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa828…d6c3backed Yes67c2,208$1,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,474.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4828…ddd9backed Yes46c2,171$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001560%9 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+115.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed No23c2,118$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,621.9513033.1%43 W · 87 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdec9…56e8backed Yes10c2,080$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4258…feecbacked No26c2,017$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,484.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+89.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18b0…2354backed No17c2,011$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,677.685736.8%21 W · 36 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes41c2,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.267337%27 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed No19c2,000$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,62010639.6%42 W · 64 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b2…f566backed No25c2,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5002100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+273%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc837…2965backed No46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0803100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+69.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b50…43e8backed No22c2,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.99650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x948c…42eebacked No17c1,990$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,655.931030%3 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecdb…da79backed Yes65c1,977$1,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,276.27825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-64.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1bfd…b5f3backed Yes46c1,956$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.82955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes22c1,935$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.326423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f5f…0642backed No24c1,919$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,466.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+111.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes54c1,917$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.5110444.2%46 W · 58 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6691…17cfbacked No21c1,904$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,504.164100%4 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+352.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x3dfc…acb7backed No43c1,891$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,082.792755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e9f…aa81backed Yes44c1,882$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.22326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-4.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9627…432fbacked No56c1,831$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.093100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes66c1,809$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.044922.4%11 W · 38 L-9.6wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-67.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x0b93…3c34backed Yes3c1,767$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.163116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.