Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Manchester United beat Porto?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48966084a16b0db3af01e290fd06ceeff4bd32d41a3502221a0dfd36d004a2c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 51c | 1,763$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.24 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 64c | 1,500$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…d9f9backed Yes | 48c | 1,367$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 37c | 1,340$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe429…fb94backed No | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a4…42e1backed No | 67c | 906.37$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b0…529bbacked Yes | 34c | 634.74$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…08ccbacked Yes | 35c | 557.14$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca93…5355backed Yes | 74c | 430.73$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 49c | 411.12$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.2 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…b9cfbacked No | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95b…42febacked Yes | 34c | 308.82$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…4eeebacked Yes | 33c | 306.06$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6936…bcfdbacked Yes | 35c | 231.2$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…d5d4backed Yes | 36c | 229.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b26…2e52backed No | 69c | 196.38$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd38…09a8backed Yes | 12c | 185.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…ed42backed Yes | 52c | 182.7$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…b93cbacked Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ca…e987backed Yes | 34c | 176.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 35c | 151.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +224.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6359…1562backed No | 69c | 150.97$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…a9c2backed No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70da…2cf2backed No | 69c | 149.71$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 50c | 126.7$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb15a…a7acbacked Yes | 35c | 114.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3caf…efb8backed No | 69c | 109.72$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3746…10ccbacked Yes | 36c | 100.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe7…ee35backed No | 70c | 87.73$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1673…e40dbacked No | 66c | 72.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 66c | 71.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 67c | 68.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 33c | 67.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -63%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 53c | 60.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6089…4f30backed No | 70c | 60.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…a4b2backed Yes | 34c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1be…19b7backed No | 67c | 50.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a5…3b86backed Yes | 34c | 50.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…1770backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…5250backed Yes | 33c | 47.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…09d3backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea9…02f9backed Yes | 61c | 37.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b9…8069backed No | 67c | 33.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39c…2bbbbacked No | 69c | 32.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c96…e71fbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United beat Porto?this page
- Will Porto beat Manchester United?No won
- Will the match between Porto and Manchester United end in a Draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.