Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Porto beat Manchester United?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x451aa1ae87223b01908be509c4458fc488241f0071ec49cf2b20942c3010c349
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 26c | 3,239$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.15 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 71c | 2,183$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.22 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 60c | 1,480$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.22 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4e…c452backed Yes | 40c | 1,272$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 40c | 185.64$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -63%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…b93cbacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847f…08a5backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x334d…9932backed No | 76c | 104.17$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 50c | 104.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0d…8250backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3a…170bbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc790…f85abacked Yes | 33c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4630…a058backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca93…5355backed Yes | 71c | 27.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a2…0713backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3b…ffcebacked Yes | 50c | 21.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Porto beat Manchester United?this page
- Will Manchester United beat Porto?No won
- Will the match between Porto and Manchester United end in a Draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.