TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$99,586
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$96,755

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,586 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes52c13,119$6,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,854.368037.5%30 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No49c9,068$4,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,663.627247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No61c6,546$3,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,584.858749.4%43 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed Yes40c6,189$2,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,446.486137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd909…fd75backed No28c3,478$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,503.962050%10 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd874…a314backed No49c3,391$1,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,725.451060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6264…9937backed Yes59c2,525$1,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,488.111350.4%57 W · 56 L+11.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+30.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed No27c2,241$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,636.021154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No26c2,000$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4753644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked No51c1,739$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.461926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes47c1,627$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.5986542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x402a…d1d1backed Yes49c1,609$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.282138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+43.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes12c1,464$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.14318.6%8 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed Yes4c1,355$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.882313%3 W · 20 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-52.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes74c1,228$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.544639.1%18 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ec…29cdbacked Yes42c1,198$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002528%7 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x717e…6498backed Yes22c1,142$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.283716.2%6 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-42.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No44c1,132$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.178058.8%47 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f41…03e7backed Yes41c1,035$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.31060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+39%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8ba…a286backed No35c930.21$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.674030%12 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x814a…25adbacked Yes69c821.6$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.195743.9%25 W · 32 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes33c778.47$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.865121.6%11 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes33c709.57$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.0136750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked No51c700$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3434641.3%19 W · 27 L-6.4wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-27.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x416e…64a8backed Yes50c693.47$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.782748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xade0…5ef5backed Yes80c564.3$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.820%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No38c523.75$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.88515.3%13 W · 72 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-49.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes69c522.17$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.315234.2%52 W · 100 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20eb…9694backed No56c508.83$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.831163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9fe…4c84backed No52c475.58$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.71633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-39.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd95f…a6b0backed No34c471.09$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.97875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+70.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbffe…6492backed No70c448.97$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.692157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2d2…4f4bbacked No54c400$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.82040%8 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42dd…48b7backed Yes44c400$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.5120%0 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x252d…9483backed Yes51c399.98$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.991060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+39.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a03…6e17backed Yes65c399$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.871926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-49.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f32…3e2cbacked Yes59c376$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.44933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+284.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8178…32d8backed Yes34c360$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.154050%20 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes60c312.5$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.852347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c85…9e34backed No66c310$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.92437.5%9 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick29cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf673…0687backed Yes37c302.99$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.592718.5%5 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes11c300$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3311141.4%46 W · 65 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d55…5ea3backed No78c299.13$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.391533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b22…7c5cbacked No44c297.58$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.641827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-25.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xae65…d7cdbacked Yes75c296.32$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.14450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+73.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf70…50e9backed No22c281.49$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.383053.3%16 W · 14 L+5.0wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+50.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x675c…2224backed Yes50c264.14$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.764520%9 W · 36 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed Yes46c259.99$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.791631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-44.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb442…4787backed Yes54c257.26$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.9230%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xadf3…2beabacked Yes56c257.15$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1441060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2541…4f1ebacked Yes69c253$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-54.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x607d…1c00backed Yes55c252.41$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x842b…f9b9backed Yes61c223.22$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1419…a517backed Yes49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Yes38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764742.6%20 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No36c200$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1271553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a3…cc69backed Yes46c199.99$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec0…aaa5backed Yes69c190.87$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.531838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No59c176.05$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.6240828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7108…7492backed Yes56c169.15$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-37.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x569a…a8abbacked Yes48c162.48$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88cb…9ed1backed Yes48c159.6$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.41838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c76…377dbacked Yes70c147.61$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.2640%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd802…12f3backed Yes13c146.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe929…b944backed Yes52c142.58$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.65825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-49.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes68c142$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.569234.8%32 W · 60 L-7.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-42.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Yes56c133.12$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.362512%3 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-52.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9a2…4639backed No24c126.8$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.79650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+51.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3508…6cabbacked Yes57c125.43$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-42.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked No60c121$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.42263.6%14 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked No53c113.2$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.24520%9 W · 36 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x189d…3d82backed No18c112.42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.423100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+197.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x664d…aa7dbacked No32c107.82$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.326229%18 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-39.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a6f…bc71backed Yes28c107.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-62.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x773b…5e93backed No37c106.46$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.07560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+44.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed No36c103.13$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9342738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf84…1e83backed No70c103.03$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.91250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2df…7f57backed Yes49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502030%6 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-42%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507321.9%16 W · 57 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494429.5%13 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa136…2965backed Yes54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-70.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf437…4b4bbacked Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517558.7%44 W · 31 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e0e…9eb8backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No31c98.92$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.5921259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc171…f029backed Yes33c98.58$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x295b…4019backed Yes33c97.42$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…c2f3backed Yes33c97.24$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fcb…acb7backed Yes33c96.78$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf181…0332backed Yes33c96.18$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0308…ad5fbacked Yes33c95.27$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x163a…e6f8backed Yes33c94.21$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75bb…0ac5backed Yes45c93.78$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.21625%4 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-51.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4fc2…e3f4backed Yes72c93.7$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.461241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick54cpaid+35%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fce…8177backed Yes33c93.27$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1099…3a66backed Yes34c90.96$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9188…55fcbacked No41c90$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+141.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaf0…003dbacked Yes56c88.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.561650%8 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f56…576fbacked Yes56c87.15$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.01333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ef1…d8c0backed Yes69c85.11$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7360%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.