Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb88b4e226ed108c28835808fbd12a1900a73b3151963c862ed64e99505c436e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,950,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,683,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,950,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,088 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 23c | 215,435$49,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,522.85 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed No | 61c | 104,907$64,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,664.88 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes | 0c | 102,398$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 37c | 97,798$36,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,510.73 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 52c | 75,229$39,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,215.13 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 41c | 73,103$30,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,101.48 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af6…25afbacked No | 57c | 70,253$39,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,472.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 18c | 61,481$10,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,955.88 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 33c | 54,880$18,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,044.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…c185backed Yes | 44c | 54,024$23,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,700.83 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 42c | 52,172$21,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,934.54 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 22c | 34,924$7,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,519.01 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 67c | 33,342$22,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,157.4 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 47c | 32,099$15,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,061.98 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 36c | 31,724$11,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,531.29 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 3c | 28,075$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.71 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes | 35c | 27,779$9,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,647.41 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 17c | 27,086$4,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,692.31 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 33c | 26,165$8,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,505.31 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Yes | 2c | 26,150$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb8…515dbacked Yes | 46c | 26,001$11,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,837.2 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…4536backed Yes | 44c | 21,000$9,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc75…6eb3backed Yes | 45c | 21,000$9,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,450 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 47c | 20,481$9,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,546.55 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd69…162abacked Yes | 47c | 19,735$9,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,184.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e7…a536backed No | 65c | 18,985$12,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,618.88 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe97c…2a99backed No | 55c | 18,672$10,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,421.89 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 47c | 18,604$8,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,746.01 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Yes | 7c | 16,333$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 23c | 16,204$3,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,728.75 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 65c | 16,033$10,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,669.93 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 17c | 15,838$2,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,643.41 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 34c | 15,607$5,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,377.37 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed No | 71c | 15,046$10,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,308.66 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…615fbacked Yes | 3c | 14,616$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1204…b5c9backed Yes | 68c | 13,579$9,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,177.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 40c | 13,468$5,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,450.54 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 32c | 12,812$4,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,124.62 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed Yes | 33c | 12,758$4,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,248.7 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 12,180$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.09 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 57c | 12,000$6,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,109.95 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…abd2backed No | 58c | 11,500$6,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,784.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 41c | 11,375$4,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,711.83 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e3…6adcbacked No | 71c | 11,306$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,306.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…79b0backed No | 54c | 11,055$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,055.08 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +140.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe038…36b0backed No | 55c | 11,000$6,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,950 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 65c | 10,898$7,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,786.56 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -83%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e8…c443backed No | 76c | 10,866$8,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,571.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…d1abbacked No | 56c | 10,600$5,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,664 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 67c | 10,535$7,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,474.96 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…b805backed Yes | 0c | 10,481$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe638…0c1bbacked No | 56c | 10,400$5,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,576 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…83adbacked Yes | 56c | 10,333$5,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,823.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 34c | 10,312$3,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,508.95 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…fbeabacked No | 61c | 10,234$6,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,956.07 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a8…0261backed No | 80c | 10,045$8,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,016.59 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…8edfbacked Yes | 6c | 10,000$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4e…d0e9backed No | 55c | 10,000$5,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f24…9b66backed Yes | 40c | 9,884$3,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,953.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 61c | 9,874$6,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,850.7 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed Yes | 29c | 9,684$2,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,821.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 44c | 9,611$4,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,401.61 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 80c | 9,575$7,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,959.53 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd6…1c39backed Yes | 53c | 9,454$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5714…c680backed No | 61c | 9,435$5,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,651.2 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked No | 59c | 9,307$5,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,802.91 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x872d…159bbacked No | 67c | 9,241$6,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,064.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…77e1backed Yes | 43c | 9,137$3,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,908.42 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16b…d883backed Yes | 53c | 9,108$4,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,805.23 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…c93bbacked No | 56c | 9,067$5,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,980.37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed Yes | 43c | 8,872$3,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,791.73 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d8…fc0ebacked No | 55c | 8,793$4,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,959.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd68…746abacked No | 71c | 8,793$6,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,568.03 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…68abbacked Yes | 35c | 8,791$3,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,051.88 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf9…1289backed Yes | 46c | 8,526$3,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,921.25 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…d120backed Yes | 46c | 8,443$3,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,907.62 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa67c…9325backed No | 61c | 8,400$5,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,293 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 59c | 8,367$4,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,399.36 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed No | 57c | 7,945$4,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,432.14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +148.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 36c | 7,914$2,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,855.93 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 59c | 7,886$4,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,630.89 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f2…566dbacked No | 64c | 7,830$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,829.69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 57c | 7,550$4,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,261.47 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…343dbacked Yes | 59c | 7,450$4,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,391.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2eb…cd8dbacked Yes | 41c | 7,398$3,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,061.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…b5b3backed Yes | 37c | 7,352$2,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,716.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 63c | 7,243$4,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,649.1 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked No | 61c | 7,230$4,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,836.84 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 66c | 7,093$4,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,421.48 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1195…fff1backed Yes | 36c | 6,855$2,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,493.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b68…b668backed No | 48c | 6,667$3,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,481.91 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…212fbacked Yes | 41c | 6,644$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,750 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…8b29backed Yes | 40c | 6,393$2,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,557.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 29c | 6,392$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840.38 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 52c | 6,319$3,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,290.06 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 49c | 6,291$3,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,086.65 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6125…089cbacked Yes | 8c | 6,249$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…4bc0backed No | 62c | 6,243$3,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,372.44 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a4…447fbacked Yes | 55c | 6,178$3,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,382.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb5…b365backed Yes | 48c | 6,053$2,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,907.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.