Middle East · resolved market
Netanyahu out by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97726dd237b1b26d510609bd1a561075e87accbf99b68edfd56fb5c09d51b751
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $340,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $296,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $340,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 13c | 17,856$2,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,405.56 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -87%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed Yes | 17c | 15,877$2,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,770.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x539f…cdcfbacked Yes | 14c | 15,076$2,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,156.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c2…2ad6backed Yes | 10c | 14,999$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 16c | 8,363$1,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,314.04 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 11c | 5,732$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.47 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 14c | 5,684$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.86 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Yes | 5c | 5,683$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.44 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 17c | 4,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e83…9482backed Yes | 17c | 3,900$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ad…4c0cbacked Yes | 6c | 3,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…eff2backed Yes | 12c | 2,930$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb011…2d13backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes | 11c | 1,800$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x905f…ad6bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,621$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Yes | 9c | 1,450$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c9…a55cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,245$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…dd32backed No | 78c | 1,172$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…da00backed Yes | 9c | 1,087$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…63a3backed Yes | 6c | 1,042$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf154…c7cabacked Yes | 5c | 1,041$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4850…c97abacked Yes | 4c | 1,020$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…5d92backed Yes | 4c | 900.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 17c | 889$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.13 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7a…65a6backed No | 71c | 845.74$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da7…ba93backed Yes | 6c | 802.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…be0dbacked Yes | 7c | 716.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…2670backed Yes | 6c | 627.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +97%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc272…5256backed Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b68…b668backed Yes | 22c | 600$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b5…6a23backed Yes | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…1323backed Yes | 9c | 510$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34df…240dbacked Yes | 7c | 500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 7c | 499.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0a…74edbacked Yes | 6c | 461.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46c…e657backed Yes | 22c | 366.64$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc150…c944backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x623d…5b17backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b45…a669backed Yes | 5c | 251.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e07…49a3backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…8900backed Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x236c…5931backed Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c96…e71fbacked Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…17b3backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae3…6537backed Yes | 22c | 180.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…f1d8backed No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03b9…7dc6backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed Yes | 41c | 123.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2efe…ea7ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ef…797ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e63…eb82backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 14c | 90.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a6…b45fbacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415f…e31cbacked Yes | 28c | 72.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.