TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-07?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$408,047
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$399,775

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $408,047 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 373 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6761…a94fbacked Yes51c219,196$112,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112,460.710650%53 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e0…024ebacked No43c129,874$55,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,664.2218950.3%95 W · 94 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7705…a627backed No43c117,208$50,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,808.721643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20cc…ebc0backed No56c27,078$15,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,021.4611657.8%67 W · 49 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff48…b0ecbacked Yes59c23,699$13,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,982.423237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked No40c17,949$7,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,796.340254.7%220 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf67c…f346backed Yes61c16,479$10,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,014.6920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Yes59c9,772$5,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,769.534766%31 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed No61c6,839$4,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,690.9637841.8%158 W · 220 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked No64c6,649$4,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,421.4679650.8%404 W · 392 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes59c5,085$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00011342.5%48 W · 65 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed No43c5,000$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,85014659.6%87 W · 59 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4af1…ef00backed No43c5,000$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8502846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31cf…8834backed No37c4,881$1,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,051.119037.8%34 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54e0…bc54backed Yes54c4,645$2,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,48620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0b0…4676backed Yes55c4,359$2,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,397.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Yes59c3,876$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30039561.3%242 W · 153 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fdc…42f9backed Yes59c3,670$2,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,165.54757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a5…2da4backed Yes60c3,640$2,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1842142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2fd…541dbacked Yes40c3,090$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.2812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick35cpaid-73.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5231…1f75backed Yes63c3,069$1,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,928.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick66cpaid-56.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked No63c2,930$1,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.1329643.6%129 W · 167 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbc3…f2a0backed Yes45c2,689$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed No41c2,496$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,460.7840640.9%166 W · 240 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked No43c2,202$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,260.988750.6%44 W · 43 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4b46…db60backed Yes60c2,100$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.861450%7 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x73b7…9360backed Yes59c1,776$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.111546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8cd…3cf2backed No39c1,746$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.418362.7%52 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…d647backed Yes23c1,734$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4071250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe807…7c26backed Yes59c1,695$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x14a3…3fb8backed Yes60c1,633$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes57c1,500$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8552142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-29%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Yes57c1,500$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8552157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Yes54c1,470$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8005740.4%23 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3785…db43backed Yes59c1,432$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9fe…4c84backed Yes59c1,400$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed No59c1,262$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.1534251.8%177 W · 165 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa19a…2f33backed Yes39c1,238$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.791723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-62.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9694…ec44backed Yes60c1,139$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.11425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick63cpaid-67.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5902…59fabacked Yes52c1,118$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.734839.6%19 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93b0…69c8backed No40c1,100$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.132035%7 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc9e…d9f9backed No41c1,095$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.527967.1%53 W · 26 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+25.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed No40c1,069$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.8646660.5%282 W · 184 L+30.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e79…56dcbacked No42c1,064$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7a…f6dbbacked Yes57c1,048$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6004438.6%17 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57017234.3%59 W · 113 L+0.5wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked Yes60c1,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6008145.7%37 W · 44 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0448…75aabacked Yes57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5701225%3 W · 9 L-3.7wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-64.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Yes59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59034643.9%152 W · 194 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c1d…c4c8backed No49c999.99$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5105131.4%16 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+19.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf11c…1290backed Yes59c965.93$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.920%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No38c885.18$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.8138649%189 W · 197 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x976d…54c6backed Yes61c866.33$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.46333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bdc…3a4ebacked No43c800$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4564963.3%31 W · 18 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+26%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Yes51c800$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4085141.2%21 W · 30 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked No52c786$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.5569772.6%506 W · 191 L+83.8wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+26.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5d5e…5d34backed Yes45c777$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.651968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick60cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bf1…5014backed Yes58c732.32$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.75650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+42.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce7a…f7aebacked Yes59c731.47$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x091a…09f1backed No43c722.6$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.88771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf84…2494backed Yes59c720.34$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42540%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8769…48ecbacked Yes59c707.95$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.694252.4%22 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf501…d663backed Yes26c688.16$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.821414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-70%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed No63c649.14$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.2325329.2%74 W · 179 L+11.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2753…2683backed Yes62c641.45$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-51.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e24…b99cbacked Yes38c614.9$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.66837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f9d…deb3backed Yes60c612.16$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.17540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95cd…32d0backed No38c599.96$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.975554.5%30 W · 25 L+10.6wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+60.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xa9d7…25e9backed No62c585.4$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.2437652.4%197 W · 179 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Yes43c581.4$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25015347.7%73 W · 80 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe763…3d69backed Yes27c549.18$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501931.6%6 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.22per pick54cpaid-49.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc730…836dbacked No44c530$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ce0…8d6fbacked Yes57c526.32$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008633.7%29 W · 57 L-14.7wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-36.3%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x4835…8f59backed Yes58c501.63$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2935740.4%23 W · 34 L-6.0wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xda3d…9964backed Yes61c459.61$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.36714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.39per pick53cpaid-74%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf6ef…e2c9backed Yes32c452.06$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.594242.9%18 W · 24 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-19.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb10d…becebacked Yes45c445.71$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd00…e43ebacked Yes45c435.65$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.761540%6 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes58c431.03$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31b7…bde1backed Yes59c425.72$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.22941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes21c400$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8444939.6%178 W · 271 L+1.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9542…4295backed No44c400$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2241752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+47.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked Yes19c400$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.34560%27 W · 18 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+97.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked No49c400$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2044553.3%24 W · 21 L+7.1wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+55.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2065…9799backed Yes50c399.76$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.88425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-67.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc745…9499backed Yes59c376.47$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.1211638.8%45 W · 71 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c88…6871backed Yes61c359.51$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f16…5bb0backed No74c355.64$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.131050%5 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x893b…188ebacked Yes57c347.86$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.281250%6 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3483…cdabbacked Yes59c338.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-73.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4292…9cd8backed Yes59c337.05$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.861936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes62c332.52$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.1618740.6%76 W · 111 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd73c…21f2backed Yes57c324.44$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+66.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe286…7735backed Yes62c322.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002045%9 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdbf…c88ebacked Yes49c308.36$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.24332.6%14 W · 29 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19dd…2cffbacked Yes58c301.72$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17570%0 W · 7 L-3.8wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes59c301.69$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1779348.4%45 W · 48 L-6.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x66e7…e316backed Yes59c300.05$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.724938.8%19 W · 30 L-6.0wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-25.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa492…d264backed No50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.