Premier League · resolved market
Will Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcae5d2375471c4ea23cc09e86986acb615726a77fa04e302d8cbd58f8a53be78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31cf…8834backed Yes | 21c | 1,931$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,525.31 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0661…a72ebacked No | 79c | 1,878$1,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,483.56 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 23c | 1,593$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,226.24 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 71c | 1,484$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.93 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5db…b42dbacked No | 69c | 1,034$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.48 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked No | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked No | 76c | 999.98$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.98 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b81…0683backed Yes | 28c | 956.39$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes | 31c | 933.87$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.37 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 34c | 797$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.02 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…a7dcbacked No | 71c | 700$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…c4c8backed No | 30c | 619.52$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.92 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 69c | 454.76$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.62 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1e…cdb6backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4890…0968backed Yes | 29c | 331.07$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.06 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…b14abacked No | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…b756backed Yes | 70c | 267.98$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f16…5bb0backed Yes | 70c | 230.07$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.02 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.33 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 67c | 152$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.84 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 152$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 253 | 29.2%74 W · 179 L | +11.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dc…9908backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.5 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b5…4b18backed Yes | 23c | 135$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f8…5111backed No | 77c | 135$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…92cfbacked Yes | 24c | 131.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…9471backed Yes | 77c | 130.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf15…2a5dbacked No | 78c | 125$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f8…2153backed Yes | 22c | 125$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 24c | 89.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 119 | 15.1%18 W · 101 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 29c | 65.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 20c | 58.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22c2…3019backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 66c | 56.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Yes | 39c | 51.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1928…29f0backed Yes | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…4957backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -5.3wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Yes | 79c | 20.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…52dbbacked No | 79c | 15.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 75cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City end in a draw?this page
- Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-12-07?No won
- Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.