TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,702,553

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,702,553 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 4,295 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d05…6320backed No0c5,978,894$8,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,008.7210417.3%18 W · 86 L-13.7wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-69.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed No0c4,149,494$5,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,298.07350%0 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e0e…40b5backed No0c2,287,255$3,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,034.0340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a41…242abacked No1c1,420,031$7,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,912.71850%9 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0c5…4adfbacked No0c1,279,650$1,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,541.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ab5…35f5backed No0c1,135,034$1,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,361.01333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-35.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf09…074fbacked No0c1,056,436$1,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,996.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb245…48d0backed No0c1,000,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5255…d94abacked No0c997,990$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fb3…8a1dbacked No0c779,195$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8be4…c7d4backed No0c718,985$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeebb…5ca6backed No0c706,215$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe215…d013backed No0c600,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f21…0041backed No0c581,000$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72bd…2b64backed No0c502,231$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.061711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-67.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa879…fb61backed No0c500,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc1…75bbbacked No0c500,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e75…82ccbacked No0c500,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b49…5dd4backed No0c484,880$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6c3…c3a5backed No0c479,030$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfe0…05f8backed No0c404,504$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f4…9764backed No0c378,568$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3868…db01backed No0c336,332$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5901…59a1backed No0c322,608$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa5e…9245backed No0c322,175$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6556…26d6backed No1c311,844$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8001526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-43.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a39…f913backed No0c308,620$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6794…7fe9backed No0c308,000$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x042b…885cbacked No0c300,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51ce…883abacked No0c279,019$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.371020%2 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7f7…9057backed No0c278,700$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.4425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93c9…cd8bbacked No1c276,633$2,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,289.29450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbca…0c2bbacked No0c270,080$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78a5…eb4abacked No0c260,330$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e04…aee8backed No0c250,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeec7…29ecbacked No0c242,840$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed No28c238,747$67,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,161.5714821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xc880…8380backed No0c230,381$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4401816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-66.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x608f…9adfbacked No0c227,093$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4e4…1960backed No0c225,155$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d57…749bbacked No0c223,480$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a79…3d27backed No0c222,000$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6103…f2d9backed No0c220,910$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.912810.7%3 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5012…6812backed No0c216,387$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf815…6cfabacked No0c216,000$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4c6…e43abacked No0c215,077$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.0820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8049…8f36backed No0c214,997$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ddd…67a1backed No0c214,700$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x266f…9f85backed No0c213,499$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.4633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+130.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x731c…637dbacked No0c211,150$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.352035%7 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81d1…0af0backed No0c211,000$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f3…2eebbacked No0c210,500$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd28b…259fbacked No0c210,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed63…75acbacked No0c202,626$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8af…c7efbacked No1c201,379$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,016.8742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe364…4b24backed No0c200,660$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.661827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3bf…a509backed No0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6f1…198fbacked No0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c1d…2f54backed No0c199,500$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1639…78cabacked No0c199,010$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x449d…86ccbacked No0c192,820$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cfa…384cbacked No0c192,000$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca5d…6ed9backed No0c190,112$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.1650%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4879…e54abacked No0c188,373$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbf…d2dbbacked No0c185,000$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4787…0dbebacked No0c185,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-57.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb50a…b0ddbacked No0c184,520$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcce9…fbe4backed No0c179,000$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f96…0524backed No0c178,974$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c74…ee19backed No0c170,007$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.6350%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d2d…ab45backed No0c170,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab8b…5e51backed No0c159,546$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No20c158,212$31,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,449.1940433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaa7…2e3cbacked No1c154,544$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.991020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-69%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc37…0ad5backed No0c154,180$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6b1…5bcbbacked No0c153,333$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e60…a52dbacked No0c150,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250757.1%4 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.49per pick8cpaid+401.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb4ae…bb7fbacked No1c148,547$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2b3…5acbbacked No0c146,502$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-51.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87b7…fd47backed No0c146,147$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfed3…c43fbacked No0c142,470$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.793342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ebf…b119backed No0c142,006$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8516…f337backed No0c140,550$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15eb…530abacked No1c139,121$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071c…9b75backed No1c135,786$1,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,909.616126.2%16 W · 45 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f21…6c7bbacked No0c131,700$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.47560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+76.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf34f…4d6ebacked No0c129,300$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.664035%14 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d90…2d74backed No0c127,305$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7729…674cbacked No0c125,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeeb8…3f3abacked No0c125,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d78…59f3backed No0c123,000$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e23…bcc8backed No0c122,576$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-64.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1433…af79backed No0c120,960$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb70b…4410backed No0c120,610$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf81…0439backed No0c120,000$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.63per pick4cpaid+1,611.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2224…0ce6backed No0c120,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cd0…b136backed No0c118,310$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.3140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c4f…f37abacked No0c118,180$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No24c117,821$28,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,049.6137740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa60b…14c8backed No1c116,104$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.