Weather · resolved market
2024 September hottest on record?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd803b51b5de5c061a57213e4b5a47bfcb9390f1ef3f93a8d571fe0132f70b51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $894,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $913,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $894,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 215 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 5c | 82,056$3,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,761.54 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 68c | 43,000$29,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,606.42 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…69ccbacked No | 78c | 40,962$31,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,116.16 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +89%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 74c | 37,708$27,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,717.66 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed Yes | 26c | 29,015$7,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,417.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd56f…e61cbacked Yes | 2c | 26,362$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 1c | 21,054$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.7 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 18c | 15,000$2,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,639.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 9c | 12,951$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca9d…07f7backed Yes | 20c | 12,460$2,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,539.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 11c | 11,724$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…df5abacked Yes | 7c | 10,630$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 7c | 10,319$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.7 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…770dbacked Yes | 4c | 9,640$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 20c | 9,352$1,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,911.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 10c | 9,112$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.98 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…2ed8backed Yes | 2c | 9,032$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…2d08backed Yes | 60c | 8,765$5,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,220 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 37c | 8,723$3,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,186 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 11c | 8,303$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 68c | 7,396$5,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,393.85 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7743…f0dbbacked Yes | 1c | 7,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8f…a579backed Yes | 26c | 6,866$1,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,752.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 25c | 6,733$1,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,668.77 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x377f…9e02backed Yes | 2c | 6,489$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.37 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 1c | 5,999$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…e7e3backed Yes | 2c | 5,649$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…19a1backed Yes | 3c | 5,577$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…27eabacked Yes | 18c | 5,554$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.73 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…0b9cbacked Yes | 3c | 5,148$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 19c | 5,000$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…ab8dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,983$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…e5e9backed Yes | 2c | 4,983$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ff…77ecbacked Yes | 1c | 4,667$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…ab2ebacked Yes | 29c | 4,600$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…8ef1backed Yes | 2c | 4,549$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 67c | 4,500$3,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488.45 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed Yes | 31c | 4,480$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…1296backed Yes | 9c | 4,285$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3137…5e0dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,167$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bb…0ac5backed Yes | 19c | 4,114$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 40c | 4,016$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 25c | 3,999$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 57c | 3,900$2,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,669 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 23c | 3,604$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.93 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 19c | 3,588$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.04 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…d03cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,515$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 19c | 3,463$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.58 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae65…d7cdbacked Yes | 6c | 3,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed No | 58c | 3,208$1,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346.65 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7119…7132backed Yes | 3c | 3,023$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 1c | 2,912$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…acecbacked Yes | 30c | 2,878$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede2…b6b4backed Yes | 7c | 2,800$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,800$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4268…43e5backed Yes | 24c | 2,750$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435c…8079backed Yes | 2c | 2,735$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b03…ac9bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,670$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 18c | 2,551$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,092.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 38c | 2,500$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…acb7backed Yes | 30c | 2,460$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 4c | 2,447$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.78 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4987…804bbacked Yes | 29c | 2,404$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3879…0df4backed Yes | 23c | 2,385$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ac…d28bbacked Yes | 22c | 2,172$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…762dbacked Yes | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d09…1714backed Yes | 2c | 1,931$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…a73cbacked No | 78c | 1,861$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.95 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed Yes | 4c | 1,860$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…d842backed Yes | 30c | 1,770$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…5701backed Yes | 31c | 1,695$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f5…04b6backed No | 77c | 1,622$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 30c | 1,609$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,580$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeafd…9f69backed Yes | 6c | 1,574$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…2886backed Yes | 2c | 1,509$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7f…44afbacked Yes | 2c | 1,501$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 37c | 1,500$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd22c…5525backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25f…87c0backed Yes | 6c | 1,464$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac2b…081dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,455$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8904…c02dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,303$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 57c | 1,299$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828d…2e40backed Yes | 1c | 1,258$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed No | 79c | 1,224$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2433…8fe3backed Yes | 1c | 1,202$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…b0c4backed Yes | 1c | 1,202$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…4a90backed Yes | 1c | 1,202$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b00…4279backed Yes | 1c | 1,202$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x750f…8c52backed Yes | 4c | 1,184$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x039e…c5e0backed Yes | 6c | 1,167$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Yes | 2c | 1,127$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…1096backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c98…75a2backed Yes | 8c | 1,089$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 41c | 1,083$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf83…0ddebacked Yes | 10c | 1,077$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf1…4c73backed Yes | 12c | 1,051$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…7c5cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,049$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3753…dc42backed Yes | 33c | 1,045$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.