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Movies · resolved market

Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,909,465
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,891,186

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,909,465 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 383 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9d5f…82cfbacked No1c139,458$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked No0c132,901$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.571421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-59.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05fc…f78ebacked No1c41,117$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.7520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-69.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed No0c25,065$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0160%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No2c24,204$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.71520%0 W · 52 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5186…51d0backed No9c23,566$2,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,15110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No2c21,862$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.0267232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53d2…0c3fbacked No0c21,039$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58e6…80b7backed No12c16,260$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed No9c16,244$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,461.941729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-17.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e9…32b8backed No20c16,114$3,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,215.75520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x341b…0eddbacked No7c15,504$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b20…7805backed No6c14,579$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d3f…789ebacked No0c13,082$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeebd…8e25backed No0c13,082$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked No6c10,251$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.04120%0 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9112…2a80backed No1c10,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4815…66edbacked Yes75c8,576$6,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2f…3549backed No25c8,576$2,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,14410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1439…5051backed No1c8,227$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bce…85fabacked No4c8,023$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.82520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+79.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No6c8,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4801020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-38.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb4…9e30backed Yes76c7,614$5,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,827.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9834…c4bdbacked No24c7,614$1,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,827.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a07…4335backed No0c7,370$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6075…b140backed Yes79c7,248$5,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96c9…ed89backed No21c7,248$1,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2f6…a693backed No24c6,433$1,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,543.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe744…2e7abacked Yes76c6,433$4,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,543.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No6c5,984$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.05922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-68.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe43…ea5cbacked Yes75c5,331$3,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,332.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb747…3e75backed No25c5,331$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,332.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2282…1051backed No1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e51…2e97backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x712f…9fe6backed No11c5,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5508633.7%29 W · 57 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb6a…a628backed No1c4,429$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7644…d10cbacked No20c4,109$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26c9…bf77backed Yes80c4,109$3,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17fb…3a92backed No0c3,916$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd240…3336backed No1c3,576$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d82…8d28backed No1c3,258$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67f4…4a81backed Yes80c3,225$2,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.31250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes33c3,183$1,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,145.415743.9%25 W · 32 L+9.6wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+60.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe38c…3ee7backed No1c3,147$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.33633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62d2…9eb7backed Yes28c3,125$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,253.111833.3%6 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+21.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b31…a48fbacked No0c3,091$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28d6…8322backed No7c3,033$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.11816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x102f…7ba8backed No0c2,983$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4116…0845backed No2c2,874$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8897…dab3backed No2c2,850$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5621…04a1backed Yes78c2,763$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-36%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c2d…6fe5backed No2c2,730$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No9c2,725$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.9550933.2%169 W · 340 L-31.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ba3…7daebacked No0c2,700$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4db…cb83backed No1c2,693$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaec1…7715backed No1c2,587$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0bf…a506backed No2c2,536$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No18c2,485$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.3880%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9abf…b18abacked No1c2,462$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19ec…3796backed No1c2,412$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e24…7fa0backed No1c2,406$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb61…a3aabacked Yes77c2,312$1,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.322050%10 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33d6…d85cbacked No2c2,278$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No10c2,232$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.2517751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda2f…baccbacked No10c2,218$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.651947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f47…922cbacked No1c2,035$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ce6…e654backed No2c2,020$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c6f…107cbacked No2c2,003$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fcf…8459backed No2c2,003$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65f1…c6c0backed No2c2,003$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fd9…c494backed No2c2,003$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ba1…00cdbacked No2c2,003$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x039f…872cbacked No1c2,003$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba20…54f2backed No2c2,003$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c1c…4661backed No1c2,003$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda78…cac2backed No2c2,003$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26e0…6c4ebacked No2c2,003$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x957d…d010backed No2c2,003$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x488b…9d83backed No2c2,002$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2f0…7460backed No2c2,001$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf03b…02d5backed No1c2,001$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdc5…7d2ebacked No2c2,001$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa101…303cbacked No2c2,001$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9232…2363backed No2c2,001$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f70…7005backed No2c2,001$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae2…68f8backed No2c2,001$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaef5…e1f1backed No2c2,001$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7fa…c0cabacked No2c2,001$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003953.8%21 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+46.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6af…e12fbacked No16c2,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb07a…c944backed No2c1,920$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ba3…9e32backed No1c1,880$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdde7…c57abacked No12c1,855$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfb3d…7261backed No16c1,853$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814a…25adbacked Yes73c1,850$1,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.62837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc13d…b44abacked No1c1,810$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1748…33f7backed No1c1,801$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61a8…d1f5backed No1c1,704$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…c2f2backed No19c1,591$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77cf…0e71backed Yes78c1,500$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3302100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.