TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,771,933
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,052,780

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,771,933 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 399 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c1,655,534$4,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,759.821910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bba…9b86backed Yes0c415,274$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes1c328,687$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,798.331214.1%5 W · 116 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-85%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a1…b3eabacked Yes0c248,170$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7079…910bbacked Yes0c174,960$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dd0…4264backed Yes0c164,494$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2df2…a61dbacked Yes0c129,828$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c126,033$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.05456.7%3 W · 42 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-78.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe39b…67e6backed Yes0c92,000$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x235d…e242backed Yes2c83,670$1,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,445.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes5c75,391$3,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,687.530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c61,929$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.84462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+55.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28e9…f89dbacked Yes0c61,272$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes6c55,110$3,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,351.676320.6%13 W · 50 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a32…c61dbacked Yes0c41,499$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f2d…9a1fbacked Yes0c40,142$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb522…531abacked Yes0c35,669$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e0a…31febacked Yes0c35,160$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa35c…c5f7backed Yes0c33,500$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72ff…284fbacked Yes0c33,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e4d…bf81backed Yes0c30,162$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4159…6c30backed Yes0c30,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-66.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8732…a5c1backed Yes3c29,076$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fcd…c2acbacked Yes2c28,470$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.58616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-72.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7480…0ddebacked Yes0c27,140$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x135d…4e67backed Yes0c26,276$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d7…1935backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde23…fee6backed Yes0c24,990$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64df…42c5backed Yes0c23,651$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2082…7cccbacked Yes0c22,822$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x952c…82b7backed Yes0c22,327$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd74…fed1backed Yes0c22,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6d8…805cbacked Yes0c21,943$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16d6…375dbacked Yes0c21,744$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ab3…262fbacked Yes0c20,144$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b22…7c5cbacked Yes5c20,101$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.3790%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fd7…3fa5backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38fe…e150backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1166…94acbacked Yes0c20,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-87.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b55…b4a3backed Yes0c20,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f4…0adcbacked Yes0c19,392$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21a8…9bdbbacked Yes0c18,990$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5db5…535ebacked Yes5c18,023$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa832…179bbacked Yes0c17,527$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.11333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-35.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x07a9…32c8backed Yes15c16,740$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x008a…21a8backed Yes11c16,550$1,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,870.81837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-44.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a3…eb9cbacked Yes10c16,510$1,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,721.0140%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e9…32b8backed Yes8c16,419$1,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,346520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d6b…0731backed Yes0c16,265$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e3…93a8backed Yes0c15,990$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0da0…5cc5backed Yes0c15,713$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe0a…2309backed Yes0c15,592$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8de2…1a18backed Yes0c15,516$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2af1…ec07backed Yes4c14,991$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.9330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b3…068cbacked Yes6c14,700$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a80…cdd9backed Yes13c14,553$1,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,891.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9023…a3b6backed Yes0c14,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes7c13,992$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.871816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-54.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x34ad…8833backed Yes0c13,750$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd27e…bab2backed Yes0c13,596$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fad…e32abacked Yes0c13,325$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2680…2537backed Yes0c13,190$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e3c…45f2backed Yes2c12,585$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c12,430$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.2267232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1ac…4826backed Yes0c12,210$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8bf…0db1backed Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6d0…9f34backed Yes9c11,774$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb4bd…585fbacked Yes0c11,290$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6cd…4e7fbacked Yes0c11,233$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf9…17efbacked Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8733…adc8backed Yes0c10,782$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58e6…80b7backed Yes5c10,668$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes6c10,553$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.32128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-81.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89ad…b45bbacked Yes1c10,500$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13180%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes13c10,219$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,283.575743.9%25 W · 32 L+9.6wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+60.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes2c10,215$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes11c10,084$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.311861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c27…9f49backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1de…18f2backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x472f…b673backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc3b…2bf1backed Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e37…f83bbacked Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa445…4687backed Yes0c9,667$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes6c9,312$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56560%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2282…1051backed Yes0c9,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62d6…f1a7backed Yes2c8,580$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x814a…25adbacked Yes15c8,094$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.42837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c85…934ebacked Yes7c8,010$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes0c7,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59e3…4485backed Yes0c7,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9da…7d9abacked Yes0c6,935$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf369…8dd9backed Yes2c6,810$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.5840%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x891b…eee1backed Yes7c6,663$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7de7…d31dbacked Yes0c6,563$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf463…f058backed Yes18c6,470$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf15…0fb7backed Yes0c6,413$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes11c6,303$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.2332639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes1c5,965$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.86714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-78%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2722…7e87backed Yes11c5,943$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes0c5,766$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.065411.1%6 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+54.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.