Movies · resolved market
Will another movie gross most in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa69f9c948b8a162eb305285bf31a581868c23a289573889b27361726c213b64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,967,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,665,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,967,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 356 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7079…910bbacked Yes | 5c | 409,512$21,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,083.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes | 4c | 194,363$7,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,523.32 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…a9e7backed Yes | 0c | 170,847$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x368b…2458backed Yes | 6c | 96,406$5,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,435.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 3c | 81,195$2,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,301.17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 7c | 81,000$5,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,575.25 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…8edfbacked Yes | 8c | 50,000$4,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,208.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 9c | 45,005$4,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,050.37 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x119a…2192backed Yes | 1c | 39,303$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634a…02cfbacked Yes | 7c | 34,457$2,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,489.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 9c | 30,997$2,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,819.73 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e4…184ebacked Yes | 13c | 30,768$4,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 6c | 26,796$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,563.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 7c | 26,468$1,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,828.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…7805backed Yes | 5c | 25,110$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 11c | 23,181$2,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,498.07 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59b0…3894backed Yes | 1c | 21,182$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 19,965$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.18 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 1c | 19,928$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed Yes | 7c | 19,629$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…93c5backed Yes | 0c | 18,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 0c | 17,550$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf4…6bf6backed Yes | 8c | 17,457$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…0542backed Yes | 0c | 17,190$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed Yes | 6c | 16,998$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.46 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…f3e2backed Yes | 1c | 16,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe793…0781backed Yes | 10c | 16,270$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45a…76b0backed Yes | 5c | 15,304$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fe…c728backed Yes | 1c | 14,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a9…0b5abacked Yes | 7c | 13,500$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd85f…7538backed Yes | 0c | 13,400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…c4c8backed Yes | 8c | 12,874$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 7c | 12,395$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.71 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…615fbacked Yes | 6c | 12,027$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7757…a49dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,464$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes | 9c | 11,443$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -81%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 10c | 11,242$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.37 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5110…5367backed Yes | 0c | 11,190$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eeb…629ebacked Yes | 1c | 11,155$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9554…2d01backed Yes | 9c | 11,112$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7330…6d4cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,990$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…6770backed Yes | 11c | 10,347$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4080…69e6backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbce7…e25dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80ec…fdc0backed Yes | 9c | 9,591$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2708…f5b1backed Yes | 11c | 9,385$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d6…c556backed Yes | 8c | 9,042$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…7ab3backed Yes | 2c | 8,955$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…85fabacked Yes | 2c | 8,029$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…1cd2backed Yes | 2c | 7,875$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x654e…a732backed Yes | 8c | 7,744$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…f0a8backed Yes | 0c | 7,396$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2d…dde5backed Yes | 7c | 7,143$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f59…4310backed Yes | 2c | 6,765$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…6fbabacked Yes | 12c | 6,755$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 9c | 6,617$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.49 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Yes | 11c | 6,300$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Yes | 8c | 6,250$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…1786backed Yes | 9c | 6,123$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 5,871$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.06 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed Yes | 6c | 5,615$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.72 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa832…179bbacked Yes | 8c | 5,592$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x447a…3eb1backed Yes | 6c | 5,507$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8e…a92dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,333$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…411bbacked Yes | 8c | 5,277$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed38…5fecbacked Yes | 8c | 5,277$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7638…4430backed Yes | 8c | 5,277$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc469…a1d0backed Yes | 8c | 5,277$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb42…dcaabacked Yes | 0c | 5,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5d…0734backed Yes | 9c | 5,085$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37f0…1037backed Yes | 3c | 5,078$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 11c | 4,715$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.64 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441f…1f9abacked Yes | 3c | 4,272$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…f4e9backed Yes | 7c | 4,243$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbb…dc2bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f41…21eabacked Yes | 5c | 4,035$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Yes | 10c | 4,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 3c | 4,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +138%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 9c | 4,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 9c | 4,000$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.64 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 8c | 4,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf23a…c409backed Yes | 8c | 3,858$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab64…d070backed Yes | 7c | 3,858$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe54…5ff2backed Yes | 1c | 3,651$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2015…3fbfbacked Yes | 5c | 3,600$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.87 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 1c | 3,600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ace…24e2backed Yes | 8c | 3,500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…ac5fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,340$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…2f6ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,253$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3001…d5c3backed Yes | 5c | 3,161$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.54 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4baf…5fdfbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…ff1abacked Yes | 1c | 2,955$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,799$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x257c…96afbacked Yes | 1c | 2,712$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 9c | 2,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ad…959cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20eb…9694backed Yes | 8c | 2,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9f…cb38backed Yes | 4c | 2,448$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will another movie gross most in 2024?this page
- Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024?No won
- Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024?No won
- Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024?No won
- Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024?No won
- Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?Yes won
- Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.