TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will another movie gross most in 2024?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,967,249
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,665,266

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,967,249 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 356 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7079…910bbacked Yes5c409,512$21,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,083.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes4c194,363$7,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,523.321910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf34b…a9e7backed Yes0c170,847$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x368b…2458backed Yes6c96,406$5,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,435.11633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes3c81,195$2,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,301.1760%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked Yes7c81,000$5,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,575.25120%0 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x040e…8edfbacked Yes8c50,000$4,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,208.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes9c45,005$4,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,050.376639.4%26 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x119a…2192backed Yes1c39,303$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.28616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-78.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x634a…02cfbacked Yes7c34,457$2,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,489.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes9c30,997$2,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,819.7317751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62e4…184ebacked Yes13c30,768$4,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,100128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-84.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes6c26,796$1,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,563.791136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes7c26,468$1,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,828.5640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…7805backed Yes5c25,110$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,232.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed Yes11c23,181$2,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,498.07875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+28.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x59b0…3894backed Yes1c21,182$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes2c19,965$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.18520%0 W · 52 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes1c19,928$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed Yes7c19,629$1,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3742737%10 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e4c…93c5backed Yes0c18,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed Yes0c17,550$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8860%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaf4…6bf6backed Yes8c17,457$1,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,396.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x784b…0542backed Yes0c17,190$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed Yes6c16,998$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.461729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-17.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4457…f3e2backed Yes1c16,500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-58.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe793…0781backed Yes10c16,270$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa45a…76b0backed Yes5c15,304$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1fe…c728backed Yes1c14,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2a9…0b5abacked Yes7c13,500$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.9850%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd85f…7538backed Yes0c13,400$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c1d…c4c8backed Yes8c12,874$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes7c12,395$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.716320.6%13 W · 50 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dee…615fbacked Yes6c12,027$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7757…a49dbacked Yes0c11,464$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes9c11,443$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.16714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-81%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f99…9b59backed Yes10c11,242$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.376918.8%13 W · 56 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-61.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5110…5367backed Yes0c11,190$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eeb…629ebacked Yes1c11,155$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9554…2d01backed Yes9c11,112$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.09450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-31.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7330…6d4cbacked Yes0c10,990$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bcf…6770backed Yes11c10,347$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4080…69e6backed Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce7…e25dbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80ec…fdc0backed Yes9c9,591$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2708…f5b1backed Yes11c9,385$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16d6…c556backed Yes8c9,042$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.22520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-73.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9af…7ab3backed Yes2c8,955$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bce…85fabacked Yes2c8,029$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.38520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+79.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7509…1cd2backed Yes2c7,875$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x654e…a732backed Yes8c7,744$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69ca…f0a8backed Yes0c7,396$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb2d…dde5backed Yes7c7,143$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f59…4310backed Yes2c6,765$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2160…6fbabacked Yes12c6,755$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.5850%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes9c6,617$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.49714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-73.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Yes11c6,300$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6931346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6650…d38ebacked Yes8c6,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83de…1786backed Yes9c6,123$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c5,871$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.0667232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74c3…c1a8backed Yes6c5,615$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.722119%4 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa832…179bbacked Yes8c5,592$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.48333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-35.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x447a…3eb1backed Yes6c5,507$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e8e…a92dbacked Yes1c5,333$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2e…411bbacked Yes8c5,277$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed38…5fecbacked Yes8c5,277$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7638…4430backed Yes8c5,277$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc469…a1d0backed Yes8c5,277$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb42…dcaabacked Yes0c5,100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e5d…0734backed Yes9c5,085$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37f0…1037backed Yes3c5,078$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x712f…9fe6backed Yes11c4,715$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.648633.7%29 W · 57 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x441f…1f9abacked Yes3c4,272$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38d6…f4e9backed Yes7c4,243$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-53.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfbb…dc2bbacked Yes1c4,100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f41…21eabacked Yes5c4,035$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Yes10c4,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3901520%3 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-46.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes3c4,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001060%6 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick31cpaid+138%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes9c4,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86a2…be38backed Yes9c4,000$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.643414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-57.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes8c4,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3201214.1%5 W · 116 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-85%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf23a…c409backed Yes8c3,858$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab64…d070backed Yes7c3,858$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-33.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe54…5ff2backed Yes1c3,651$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2015…3fbfbacked Yes5c3,600$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.8790%0 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes1c3,600$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182010%2 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ace…24e2backed Yes8c3,500$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c47…ac5fbacked Yes0c3,340$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f6a…2f6ebacked Yes1c3,253$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3001…d5c3backed Yes5c3,161$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.54812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4baf…5fdfbacked Yes2c3,000$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes9c3,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2735…ff1abacked Yes1c2,955$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c2,799$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+55.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x257c…96afbacked Yes1c2,712$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed Yes9c2,500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2253836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ad…959cbacked Yes2c2,500$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20eb…9694backed Yes8c2,500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b9f…cb38backed Yes4c2,448$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.