Premier League · resolved market
Will Tottenham vs. Arsenal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d3fd64d3c331c44014f1f344cb97475591b44372e5541bfa53c2b2bbf767b0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 17c | 1,955$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.04 | 253 | 29.2%74 W · 179 L | +11.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,200$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 220 | 50%110 W · 110 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 73c | 740.94$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.02 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Yes | 24c | 523.02$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.43 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 73c | 437.81$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.21 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4e…f5d9backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…b490backed Yes | 28c | 285.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52a…feb8backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…f913backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb6…df1cbacked No | 73c | 136.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5697…cddfbacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e00…14ecbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…9f1ebacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x386a…526abacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb91…b665backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc79c…757bbacked Yes | 29c | 51.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…3f6bbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6c…60e7backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc4…7a15backed Yes | 28c | 49.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 208 | 19.2%40 W · 168 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…fb64backed Yes | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6c…b6d7backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad5d…67b1backed No | 73c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tottenham vs. Arsenal end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal beat Tottenham?Yes won
- Will Tottenham beat Arsenal?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.