Music · resolved market
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce break up in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe17aa1b33e0203ccb0bbc78edc78991dca79a6802f941c3dd336b6c46f304a7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $173,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $262,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Yes | 12c | 6,818$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c12…fb6abacked Yes | 25c | 4,997$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…935cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,370$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 12c | 2,241$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.72 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed Yes | 8c | 1,612$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…dcf4backed Yes | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831e…8db9backed Yes | 14c | 1,390$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked No | 31c | 1,140$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Yes | 13c | 1,106$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes | 11c | 999.96$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +62%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…ebb0backed Yes | 7c | 979.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…3cd9backed Yes | 10c | 950$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 5c | 948.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…72d5backed Yes | 8c | 883.05$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0839…e88ebacked Yes | 8c | 827.67$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…2433backed Yes | 13c | 698.61$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 594.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…2a8dbacked Yes | 12c | 549.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5196…a0cabacked Yes | 16c | 549.3$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a62…da45backed Yes | 7c | 514.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cda…cf57backed Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa140…dcf7backed Yes | 8c | 362.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…8108backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked Yes | 17c | 344.53$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa9…0a9cbacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…3d65backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 12c | 323.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -94.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ce…b599backed Yes | 10c | 322.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c94…7e2cbacked Yes | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 8c | 267.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…7177backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbba…dbffbacked Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ee…e13ebacked Yes | 14c | 180.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…68eabacked Yes | 19c | 178.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…3673backed Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…294abacked Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0212…5e5bbacked Yes | 13c | 157.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…925fbacked Yes | 16c | 155.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…6267backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…de46backed No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7c…1b5abacked Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x330d…6174backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6013…d915backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…375cbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c46…3a26backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60be…e018backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x703c…e334backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb806…8a8fbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0ef5backed Yes | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Yes | 10c | 118.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cce…44b9backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd20f…04debacked Yes | 9c | 108.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes | 21c | 100.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…0b7bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e7…0d4fbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…7821backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x628b…b84fbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…a3aabacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…51cfbacked Yes | 14c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab3…fad8backed Yes | 23c | 85.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de5…9c80backed No | 76c | 22.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.