TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x703c…e334

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
43
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Premier League, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 54 out of 100; worst Middle East at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Sep 15, 2025, EDT1741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Falcons vs. Vikingsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$80.3
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$274.62
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+1,235.4%+$135.89
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Will Patrick Mahomes win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$155.14
Will the Vikings win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST-100%-$15
Chiefs vs. Billsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$62.48
Vikings vs. Titansbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST+37%+$11.1
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST+38.9%+$5.83
Buccaneers vs. Chiefsbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2024, EST-100%-$120
Colts vs. Vikingsbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2024, EST-100%-$10
Commanders vs. Giantsbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2024, EST+49.3%+$9.85
Cowboys vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT+63.9%+$25.71
Texans vs. Bearsbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2024, EDT+38.9%+$7.78
Chiefs vs. Bengalsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2024, EDT+38.9%+$7.08
All 17 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2025, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2024, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+58.7%+$10.16
Taylor vs. Serranobacked Serrano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$43.03
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+658.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Liverpool wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT+658.7%+$337.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$513Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT+49.5%+$254.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 9, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2024 July hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,135Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2024, EDT+26.6%+$301.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce break up in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 21, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$339Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$339.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Novak Djokovic win Wimbledon Men's?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2024, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 7, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.