TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $45-53m opening weekend?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$229,219
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$217,266

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,219 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes46c17,450$8,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,346.9416350.3%82 W · 81 L+24.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked No1c11,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101214.1%5 W · 116 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-85%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes16c9,357$1,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,880.025743.9%25 W · 32 L+9.6wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+60.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No4c9,190$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.2218719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes54c8,962$4,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,121.8416040%64 W · 96 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3c8…e7acbacked No8c5,070$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.5780%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes56c4,962$2,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,163.065848.3%28 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x777b…08b0backed No17c4,414$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.0340%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed No29c3,515$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.752133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda2f…baccbacked No53c2,300$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.621947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2583…0626backed Yes30c1,993$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,393.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+232.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e58…be81backed No2c1,864$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91b4…f99dbacked No3c1,857$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4692…68edbacked Yes74c1,761$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes52c1,631$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.881233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-48.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes69c1,532$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.926320.6%13 W · 50 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked No7c1,473$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5250%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00bc…f59abacked No13c1,441$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.29250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d34…7c14backed Yes74c1,260$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.379238%35 W · 57 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ff…39f3backed No2c1,118$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbba…dbffbacked No10c1,063$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.561711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-81.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked No20c1,050$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.331323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick18cpaid-39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4b6…bb1cbacked Yes15c1,000$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8501711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-48%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No72c981.41$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.851947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0c…542bbacked Yes65c979.51$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.44616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-74.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a36…454bbacked Yes30c933.82$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.676640.9%27 W · 39 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes18c890.25$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.151346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cf2…9621backed No27c815.53$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b64…9832backed No71c768.68$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.43520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-73.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Yes29c750$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.52630.8%8 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x71c0…fd11backed No4c733.05$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2180%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3ee…373ebacked No76c691.5$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.441414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-73%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes29c637.46$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.817839.7%31 W · 47 L+8.4wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No48c620.97$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.2250633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x066d…07bcbacked No75c615.47$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.392020%4 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-69.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes17c583.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.6615054.7%82 W · 68 L+30.5wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+62.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x41f8…70b2backed No74c566.15$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.1450%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x761d…d73bbacked No77c565$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.5340%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes39c513.62$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.932619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32e3…d066backed Yes14c500$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.1728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick16cpaid+88.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb96a…bc42backed No56c474.4$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.0550%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x429a…8070backed No61c468.52$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.68120%0 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe32c…0c09backed No73c461$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.35425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-62.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b06…0b42backed Yes53c450$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.51118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3399…e5fbbacked No70c440$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.42825%7 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes25c377.78$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.7267232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa69f…6874backed Yes65c374.66$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.54231%13 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick36cpaid+85.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd4d…0adbbacked No32c364.05$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed No71c321.09$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.61650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe016…642abacked Yes22c300.99$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.521040%4 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+32.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xacd1…972abacked No5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes33c298$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.513426.5%9 W · 25 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-50.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed No21c295$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.085437%20 W · 34 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x712f…9fe6backed Yes67c285$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.498633.7%29 W · 57 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f3b…e6ecbacked No8c240.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf28b…e0f7backed Yes71c210.76$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01ea…a907backed No8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7434…e58bbacked No48c198.04$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.53030%9 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc136…0c3bbacked Yes65c160$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00fa…30bebacked Yes42c150.77$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.77166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-85%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbca5…eccabacked Yes13c150$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.51952.6%10 W · 9 L+3.7wins+0.19per pick33cpaid+166.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x76d2…6369backed No70c142.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-67.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb61…a3aabacked Yes32c141$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.352050%10 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f41…03e7backed No56c136.55$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.09911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-79.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes57c135.52$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.787033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6147…d34ebacked Yes15c120.01$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.411662.5%10 W · 6 L+5.0wins+0.31per pick31cpaid+100.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xac68…13b6backed No23c110.61$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc12…d929backed No63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6320%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd866…ea89backed No75c97.48$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7640%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3943…fe6ebacked Yes69c86.96$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.96333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-51.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac99…0b0fbacked Yes69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54db…d73fbacked No73c66.45$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5140%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0760…c72ebacked Yes31c65.16$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+62.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x703c…e334backed Yes32c62.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8960…93fbbacked Yes33c60$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x892d…f806backed Yes70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+104.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ee4…3ababacked No32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2897…ef21backed No73c49.67$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb883…21b8backed Yes28c41.01$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.53742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6116…f247backed No72c40$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.30per pick39cpaid-86.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6f65…da97backed Yes70c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa779…0aacbacked No79c39.37$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7522…bcbcbacked No74c27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe341…9142backed No70c24.29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1740%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a82…faa3backed No70c22.73$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No70c21.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.132941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x377f…9e02backed No73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6110%0 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7742…03e9backed Yes68c19.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8685…7ad1backed No72c17.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ba6…b79fbacked Yes77c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87c4…e413backed No72c14.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.