Movies · resolved market
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross less than $45m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a8def2e5a2db482b2555e1bea3ed899192878d408eb04587bf636114da89fc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $246,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $246,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e9…32b8backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…dd1ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 9,713$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.42 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes | 11c | 6,826$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.9 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +9.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…aaf2backed Yes | 1c | 6,600$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 8c | 6,370$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.94 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 13c | 6,246$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.98 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 2c | 4,000$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 3,860$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…c70cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,899$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes | 3c | 2,459$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x792d…c475backed Yes | 4c | 2,034$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.67 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5e…90d6backed Yes | 1c | 1,619$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…fd11backed Yes | 3c | 1,545$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbba…dbffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,480$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked Yes | 3c | 1,268$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e3…d066backed Yes | 9c | 1,261$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…d194backed Yes | 14c | 1,131$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab1b…b851backed Yes | 5c | 1,093$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 11c | 1,038$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.26 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,014$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 5c | 1,008$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…a50dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,004$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb16e…a134backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ff…25f1backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba25…dacabacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 11c | 927.79$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.35 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Yes | 13c | 925.03$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.85 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Yes | 12c | 726.63$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.76 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f65…da97backed Yes | 15c | 680.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d7…12f4backed Yes | 2c | 604.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 11c | 596.55$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.12 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 23c | 560.43$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.2 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -85%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 77c | 550$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.5 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed Yes | 4c | 547.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 2c | 525$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 3c | 500.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x119a…2192backed Yes | 12c | 497.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…eccabacked Yes | 14c | 449.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +166.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…fef0backed Yes | 2c | 444.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…9475backed Yes | 23c | 439.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b64…9832backed No | 76c | 356.53$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes | 6c | 332.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 12c | 295$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb13…296dbacked Yes | 11c | 283.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x761d…d73bbacked Yes | 13c | 277.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1786…5b47backed Yes | 6c | 221$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba6…b79fbacked Yes | 10c | 184.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x494d…bdedbacked Yes | 10c | 174.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…0f1fbacked Yes | 15c | 171.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9d…09c0backed Yes | 14c | 143.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…a3aabacked Yes | 17c | 141$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…c7d7backed Yes | 13c | 131.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b68…fc6fbacked Yes | 13c | 124.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c60…4432backed Yes | 11c | 122.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb96a…bc42backed Yes | 12c | 121.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc289…1d6abacked Yes | 12c | 100.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…03e7backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf86d…e314backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a5…93d5backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross less than $45m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $45-53m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $53-61m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $61-70m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross more than $70m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.