Movies · resolved market
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross more than $70m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5b2c2e8db66aa4ad79a790a5ea52a3cc1affdc37846cf4c3fcd2d334f37d4b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $486,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $340,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $486,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 0c | 36,451$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf369…8dd9backed Yes | 20c | 17,637$3,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,511.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be6…2006backed Yes | 33c | 15,025$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4711…61b3backed Yes | 5c | 14,971$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.07 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ea…a907backed Yes | 1c | 12,039$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…9142backed Yes | 1c | 11,433$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…07c2backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b64…9832backed Yes | 5c | 9,260$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b0…4041backed Yes | 36c | 6,934$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5e…90d6backed Yes | 8c | 5,649$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcea5…80f7backed Yes | 0c | 5,018$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e49…3dcabacked Yes | 2c | 4,722$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes | 6c | 4,703$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.44 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked Yes | 11c | 4,700$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.37 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb037…9d33backed Yes | 1c | 4,541$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked Yes | 11c | 4,381$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.53 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…ff3abacked Yes | 4c | 4,342$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbba…dbffbacked Yes | 0c | 4,312$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…ea89backed Yes | 12c | 4,310$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f8…70b2backed Yes | 12c | 3,816$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…fd11backed Yes | 1c | 3,694$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x119a…2192backed Yes | 7c | 3,634$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb554…c309backed Yes | 1c | 3,623$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 69c | 3,077$2,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.15 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…ea11backed Yes | 18c | 3,045$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.44 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked No | 68c | 3,039$2,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.55 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…6fbabacked Yes | 19c | 2,950$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 6c | 2,560$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.36 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c3…1f5fbacked No | 80c | 2,501$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.25 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6704…9013backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4d…0adbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,452$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf2…9621backed Yes | 8c | 2,383$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 2,328$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.72 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…3996backed Yes | 13c | 2,294$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.24 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 37c | 2,196$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.11 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -85%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,196$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdf…7c24backed Yes | 1c | 2,143$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777b…08b0backed Yes | 32c | 2,102$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e82…6bacbacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…74a7backed Yes | 4c | 1,900$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…ecaebacked Yes | 13c | 1,733$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked No | 75c | 1,668$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.02 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b81…274cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,657$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc000…dbd4backed Yes | 18c | 1,609$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeded…5247backed Yes | 1c | 1,609$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 15c | 1,562$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x835b…6087backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x761d…d73bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,318$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…a3aabacked No | 76c | 1,311$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.74 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92ce…dec2backed Yes | 7c | 1,292$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…d73fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,195$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…4b52backed Yes | 13c | 1,189$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdf…45cebacked Yes | 21c | 1,183$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa582…7289backed Yes | 13c | 1,166$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c1…ec4dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,140$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 31c | 1,101$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.17 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…170fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,100$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c13…4ea6backed Yes | 13c | 1,077$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 12c | 1,069$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.88 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 3c | 1,046$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd1…972abacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…6383backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed No | 65c | 995.83$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.76 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x066d…07bcbacked Yes | 9c | 989.34$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.12 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 77c | 984.4$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.98 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…bf04backed Yes | 23c | 973.5$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d1…3718backed Yes | 29c | 948.07$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked No | 73c | 935.21$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.1 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb96a…bc42backed Yes | 11c | 829.12$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3a…7c06backed Yes | 3c | 814.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 3c | 808.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ab…3afdbacked Yes | 1c | 753.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 5c | 750$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…b13ebacked Yes | 39c | 741.93$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…9605backed Yes | 22c | 733.17$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4455…98e5backed Yes | 14c | 718.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x377f…9e02backed Yes | 20c | 712.11$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.22 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yes | 3c | 701.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x202d…f8dabacked Yes | 28c | 665.21$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.2 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadbc…d00fbacked Yes | 13c | 635$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e79…fc2ebacked Yes | 3c | 628.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0c…542bbacked Yes | 28c | 620.93$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 21c | 610.44$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.6 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes | 18c | 600$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed No | 69c | 585.57$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.91 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 554.56$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.96 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa47b…8462backed Yes | 32c | 554.43$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e30…9e6fbacked Yes | 27c | 548.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe483…b5a0backed Yes | 38c | 520.85$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2216…4accbacked Yes | 9c | 514.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ac…2287backed Yes | 16c | 500$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…243fbacked Yes | 22c | 446.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 77c | 439.95$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.39 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…1ab1backed Yes | 31c | 420.17$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a00…01f9backed Yes | 25c | 381.17$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 22c | 369.92$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc289…1d6abacked Yes | 3c | 350$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…6369backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 6c | 340.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross more than $70m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $45-53m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $53-61m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $61-70m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross less than $45m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.