Weather · resolved market
2024 July hottest on record?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26d85d02667c5b92fb17e678bf347e2ba741621efd37673603b874af51512e4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,715,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,780,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,715,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 709 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70b9…74cebacked No | 31c | 497,035$154,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154,287.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 64c | 415,562$266,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149,094.39 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c8…d3e7backed Yes | 78c | 388,683$303,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84,791.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +79%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…0ff1backed Yes | 47c | 166,947$77,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89,230.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…da79backed Yes | 72c | 165,633$119,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,120.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63f…69dcbacked No | 37c | 121,994$44,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,561.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed Yes | 70c | 120,034$84,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,430.69 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 47c | 108,220$50,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,849.32 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…7c6abacked No | 24c | 100,000$23,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,765.62 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0c…c823backed No | 55c | 95,562$52,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,213.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f3…b424backed No | 42c | 93,857$39,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,078.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…ce48backed No | 31c | 92,522$28,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,220.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed No | 14c | 76,046$10,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,533.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 8cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 62c | 75,862$47,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,637.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 34c | 69,420$23,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,531.45 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1654…5173backed No | 47c | 65,830$30,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,897.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d7…0808backed Yes | 72c | 60,418$43,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,798.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd9…f622backed No | 59c | 58,266$34,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,207.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe999…6f77backed Yes | 54c | 51,605$28,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,490.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…69ccbacked Yes | 49c | 51,119$25,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,883.25 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +89%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b3…7469backed No | 47c | 43,968$20,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,763.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368b…2458backed Yes | 70c | 38,056$26,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,522.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d7…2896backed No | 24c | 36,185$8,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,861.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…221dbacked Yes | 51c | 34,026$17,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,792.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 65c | 33,894$22,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,881.71 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 58c | 30,847$17,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,092.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e06…15d5backed Yes | 76c | 30,223$22,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,242.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…7befbacked No | 70c | 28,685$19,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,997.87 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dc…7283backed Yes | 35c | 26,913$9,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,405.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 40c | 25,817$10,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,611.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 72c | 25,038$18,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,034.59 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed No | 31c | 23,232$7,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,257.1 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…9ebdbacked No | 31c | 22,698$7,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,071.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3879…0df4backed No | 22c | 22,512$4,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,920.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc39c…68f0backed No | 23c | 22,082$5,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,080.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…4d7dbacked No | 58c | 21,573$12,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,559.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…0cc9backed No | 28c | 17,980$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d5…6f6abacked No | 21c | 17,669$3,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,773.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe395…2a72backed No | 61c | 16,810$10,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,235.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777e…2836backed No | 20c | 15,759$3,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,093.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…b113backed No | 21c | 15,725$3,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,302.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc729…a03abacked No | 43c | 14,870$6,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,444.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…4a81backed No | 53c | 14,393$7,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,579.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +150%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 74c | 13,335$9,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,442.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -73%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…ab2ebacked No | 64c | 13,028$8,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,380.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff0a…5afdbacked No | 21c | 12,997$2,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,786.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4663…457abacked No | 21c | 11,024$2,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,273.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…e5cfbacked No | 21c | 10,212$2,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,157.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…2cf2backed Yes | 62c | 10,200$6,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,893.57 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc99b…a10fbacked No | 63c | 10,078$6,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,348.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8a…b061backed No | 37c | 9,870$3,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,685.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…c276backed Yes | 73c | 9,598$7,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,549.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9112…2f0bbacked No | 56c | 9,523$5,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,311.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…c482backed No | 69c | 9,112$6,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,312.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 47c | 8,632$4,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,082.74 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed No | 37c | 8,580$3,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,169.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…2da3backed No | 68c | 8,329$5,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,634.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 74c | 8,312$6,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,146.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed No | 32c | 8,252$2,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,610.06 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59e3…71d5backed No | 46c | 8,133$3,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,750.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…a395backed Yes | 65c | 7,992$5,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,818.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…f3e2backed Yes | 42c | 7,559$3,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,348.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c6…5d32backed No | 19c | 7,533$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…951ebacked No | 27c | 6,878$1,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,891.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 71c | 6,778$4,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,795.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked No | 26c | 6,665$1,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,757.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2608…e00cbacked No | 62c | 6,364$3,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,959.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed Yes | 71c | 6,050$4,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,769.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b21…b951backed No | 66c | 5,992$3,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,953.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf15…dad3backed No | 18c | 5,554$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b3…1d7bbacked No | 19c | 5,263$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…7617backed No | 60c | 5,116$3,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,068.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed No | 23c | 5,071$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd653…ba9abacked No | 21c | 4,967$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…df5abacked No | 33c | 4,854$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,582 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…a012backed No | 57c | 4,731$2,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,709.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba9…3d42backed No | 65c | 4,609$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1c…2a17backed Yes | 37c | 4,567$1,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,898.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +173.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2803…0dd7backed No | 31c | 4,557$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…ffbebacked Yes | 78c | 4,519$3,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385b…4dd5backed No | 40c | 4,513$1,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,804.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 49c | 4,462$2,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,205.41 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…3b03backed No | 68c | 4,402$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d66backed No | 53c | 4,371$2,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,334.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6e…96ffbacked No | 19c | 4,341$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed Yes | 67c | 4,341$2,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,444.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 31c | 4,255$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.35 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…b1d1backed No | 43c | 4,209$1,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,826.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1c…33c1backed No | 45c | 4,196$1,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,889.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 22c | 4,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa359…b1dabacked No | 19c | 3,984$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…c86dbacked No | 31c | 3,894$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa282…1cc2backed No | 41c | 3,854$1,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,591.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed Yes | 71c | 3,703$2,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.25 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3346…0032backed No | 27c | 3,666$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…8138backed Yes | 46c | 3,644$1,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,981.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 25c | 3,581$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.32 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f5…5901backed No | 63c | 3,436$2,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,181.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…2d08backed Yes | 44c | 3,374$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,874.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 20c | 3,231$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.49 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.