TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump signs national abortion ban?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,413,356
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,459,862

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,413,356 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f74…2314backed Yes17c117,155$20,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,024.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb404…0a05backed Yes8c86,464$6,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,677.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb59…4e58backed Yes9c78,713$7,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,066.51258%2 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-61.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes1c49,408$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.9611419.3%22 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x341b…0eddbacked Yes6c31,898$2,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,008.681338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+36.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b9b…a65ebacked Yes5c25,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-76.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes5c19,717$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.8221935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes7c18,238$1,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.04828.5%7 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac61…f5f7backed Yes17c17,950$2,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,971.721833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes15c16,408$2,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,527.8911940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5230…e16cbacked Yes11c15,437$1,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,720.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes10c14,098$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,375.17331.5%23 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Yes11c13,958$1,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,489.168843.2%38 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed Yes12c13,900$1,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,708.141361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1bf…1800backed Yes9c11,200$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0081266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+71.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf241…a9a8backed Yes9c11,176$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes7c11,048$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.3941238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes6c10,780$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.545928.8%17 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes7c10,076$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.399629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1b31…b02dbacked No80c9,839$7,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,977.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d09…1714backed Yes7c9,136$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.8460%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes8c7,903$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.210632.1%34 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes21c7,756$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60015243.4%66 W · 86 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes11c7,515$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.6137533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes12c7,158$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.464814.6%7 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…7d0cbacked Yes7c6,867$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3743…e5b6backed Yes7c6,500$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4551513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-38.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x577c…7dd1backed Yes10c5,739$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.232839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdd6…39b0backed Yes9c5,687$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.72333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes5c5,436$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.826028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3e…e860backed Yes5c4,995$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No79c4,830$3,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991.1320446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed Yes8c4,089$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.142250%11 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a9b…4d6cbacked No76c4,000$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9601338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-43.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes8c3,725$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.513537.8%51 W · 84 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed No77c3,696$2,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.649533.7%32 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7215…bd1dbacked Yes10c3,620$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.85520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick7cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7701…24e6backed Yes14c3,500$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes8c3,474$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.485433.3%18 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36cf…0a79backed Yes8c3,125$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5464…be5ebacked Yes12c3,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3603925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fdd…0b07backed Yes6c3,000$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+41.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1804…1b4dbacked Yes6c2,682$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes6c2,583$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.5813540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes9c2,450$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2165137.3%19 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x310e…5050backed Yes7c2,259$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-43.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes9c2,222$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008030%24 W · 56 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65fb…92cabacked Yes5c2,199$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.9140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed Yes11c2,102$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.3234.3%1 W · 22 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-68.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes29c2,047$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.2821634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92d9…7c18backed Yes7c2,011$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes9c2,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18014843.2%64 W · 84 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9921…1c14backed Yes6c1,913$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.17333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5739…6311backed Yes9c1,677$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.4640%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f4…54d2backed Yes14c1,517$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.140%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b0d…ec73backed Yes1c1,513$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae43…8194backed Yes9c1,450$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1243729.7%11 W · 26 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-47.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes7c1,349$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.57316.5%2 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes8c1,300$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-84.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x867c…5d65backed Yes9c1,233$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x686a…966bbacked Yes10c1,161$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.173450%17 W · 17 L+7.5wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+123.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x8e1e…795fbacked Yes1c1,140$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1729…61a6backed Yes9c1,093$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8282…b854backed Yes8c1,090$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b72…183dbacked Yes10c1,078$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes16c1,055$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.473859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x78cf…4816backed Yes14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb799…c753backed Yes14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-75.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf338…14f2backed Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801625%4 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc609…e74dbacked Yes8c999.33$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.951154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Yes8c943$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.44348.8%3 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+65%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x88fe…e618backed Yes6c879.08$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb316…6a9fbacked Yes7c857.14$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6050%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes17c799.98$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1392847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes7c799.98$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.415227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x87ef…dc01backed Yes29c795$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.7425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Yes13c755.58$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.067447.3%35 W · 39 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb27…4db3backed Yes13c750$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.53920.5%8 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-52.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f9e…82fabacked Yes8c733.44$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick48cpaid-73.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4020…11d1backed Yes14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffe…e125backed No80c700$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.53964.1%25 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes10c691$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.876432.8%21 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2581…f62fbacked Yes6c679.95$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe5…b4b1backed Yes7c668.66$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.331060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+46%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdcc…35debacked Yes9c640.11$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c1…5d6fbacked Yes10c625$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-31%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43fb…d2f5backed Yes10c608.9$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e50…235dbacked Yes6c600$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7f3…8348backed Yes8c595$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7709…5852backed Yes17c583.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes10c578.74$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4396319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes12c576.88$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7617021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb31…dc5cbacked Yes9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8455…07cebacked Yes9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes13c549.92$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c96…f26abacked No79c548.87$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.24955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes5c548.1$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0717713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes28c540$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.48150.6%41 W · 40 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ddf…5aaabacked Yes17c511.76$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed Yes16c505.9$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.44630.4%14 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.