TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7701…24e6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
185
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Lol, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Lol at 51 out of 100; worst College Football at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST16845.8%77 W · 91 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 168 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba win the Super Bowl LX MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$28
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+47.9%+$64.8
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)backed Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+100%+$50
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$44
Patriots vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Spread: Patriots (-4.5)backed Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+88.7%+$47
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)backed 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$55
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+104.1%+$153
Texans vs. Steelersbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+66.7%+$33.33
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$31
Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)backed Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$96
Spread: Chargers (-10.5)backed Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Spread: Chargers (-8.5)backed Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$165.08
Commanders vs. Cowboysbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Panthers vs. Jetsbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$15.65
Patriots vs. Titansbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$25.99
Steelers vs. Bengalsbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+222.6%+$44.52
Spread: Steelers (-5.5)backed Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$18.46
Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)backed Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$42.31
49ers vs. Buccaneersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.4
Spread: Colts (-6.5)backed Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$54
Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)backed Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Spread: Eagles (-7.5)backed Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$48.04
Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)backed Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$97
Chiefs vs. Jaguarsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$64
Showing 25 of 168 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2024, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+376.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$43
UC San Diego vs. Michiganbacked UC San Diego · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$42
Creighton vs. Louisvillebacked Louisville · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$90
All 3 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+34.8%+$25.8
Israel military response against Iran in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT-100%-$111.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ohio State beat Notre Dame by 9 or more points?backed Notre Dame · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Ohio State vs. Notre Damebacked Notre Dame · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$36.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump signs national abortion ban?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$490
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$296.61
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.