NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chargers (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7277f953e1f447c7d50004e43867440749139b4bf7ba2b57c4730e1078297b5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Titansof Chargers, Titans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5137…1556backed Titans | 46c | 1,843$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.23 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d8…ad91backed Chargers | 54c | 1,644$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.76 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Chargers | 55c | 1,142$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Titans | 45c | 856.42$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.03 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96f…d46bbacked Chargers | 55c | 432.69$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.98 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Chargers | 52c | 358.6$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.93 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f42…c99ebacked Chargers | 54c | 322$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…24e6backed Chargers | 54c | 304.62$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.08 | 168 | 45.8%77 W · 91 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Titans | 44c | 295.44$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.7 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Titans | 47c | 294.11$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.66 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Titans | 45c | 280$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Titans | 46c | 252.48$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.34 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Titans | 45c | 210.6$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.2 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Titans | 58c | 179$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.18 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Titans | 47c | 137.77$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Titans | 46c | 116.46$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Titans | 45c | 110$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Titans | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…009bbacked Chargers | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Chargers | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Chargers | 49c | 90.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -9.5wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…078abacked Titans | 46c | 75.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Chargers | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Titans | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Titans | 55c | 67.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Titans | 46c | 67.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Chargers | 55c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Chargers | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf31…2931backed Chargers | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa9…259ebacked Chargers | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb017…1fd6backed Chargers | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…4ab2backed Chargers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chargers (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Chargers (-6.5)Titans won
- Chargers Team Total: O/U 34.5Under won
- Chargers vs. TitansChargers won
- Chargers vs. Titans: 1H MoneylineChargers won
- Chargers vs. Titans: O/U 42.5Over won
- Chargers vs. Titans: O/U 43.5Over won
- Chargers vs. Titans: O/U 44.5Over won
- Spread: Chargers (-10.5)Titans won
- Spread: Chargers (-9.5)Titans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.