NFL · resolved market
Chargers vs. Titans: O/U 43.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9cd00afc965ffe8c40209eb25b986aa41c91c8287b74f07082c6721748495ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 51c | 35,807$18,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,595.34 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c81…e258backed Over | 52c | 25,000$12,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,050 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 49c | 13,793$6,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,787.2 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 49c | 12,535$6,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,142.22 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 11,069$5,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,392.09 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 10,096$4,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,846 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 48c | 7,923$3,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,802.99 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 46c | 7,000$3,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,220 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 54c | 4,254$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,973.58 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 49c | 4,011$1,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,955.67 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3158…d469backed Over | 52c | 3,300$1,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,584 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Under | 48c | 3,292$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 54c | 3,166$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.51 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff93…ca00backed Under | 48c | 1,402$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 50c | 1,250$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.9 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac8e…4341backed Over | 52c | 763$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42cd…d786backed Over | 52c | 572$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfec8…9a19backed Under | 48c | 556$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Over | 52c | 416.67$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 377.83$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.02 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 49c | 323.18$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.86 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 51c | 322$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.22 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Over | 53c | 284.06$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.51 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…d262backed Over | 52c | 236$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe98e…6ad2backed Over | 52c | 217$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe64…873ebacked Over | 51c | 195.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.88 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 47c | 170$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Under | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…c142backed Over | 52c | 103$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Under | 32c | 92.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 67c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 48c | 71.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…2b2dbacked Over | 52c | 67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Under | 48c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e31…4716backed Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc067…d9adbacked Over | 53c | 19.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chargers vs. Titans: O/U 43.5this page
- 1H Spread: Chargers (-6.5)Titans won
- Chargers Team Total: O/U 34.5Under won
- Chargers vs. TitansChargers won
- Chargers vs. Titans: 1H MoneylineChargers won
- Chargers vs. Titans: O/U 42.5Over won
- Chargers vs. Titans: O/U 44.5Over won
- Spread: Chargers (-10.5)Titans won
- Spread: Chargers (-8.5)Titans won
- Spread: Chargers (-9.5)Titans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.