TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Jaguarsof Chiefs, Jaguars
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$460,920
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$471,881

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $460,920 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9158…fa7bbacked Chiefs48c170,000$81,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81,60011445.6%52 W · 62 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Jaguars52c123,997$64,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,518.6812352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Chiefs48c80,000$38,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,40017647.7%84 W · 92 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Jaguars52c60,000$31,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,799.9917454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Jaguars52c44,957$23,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,579.2627454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Jaguars52c37,881$19,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,261.7424652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Jaguars51c30,269$15,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,831.9331240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc2ae…2a5fbacked Chiefs48c30,000$14,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,4003745.9%17 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Jaguars52c25,680$13,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,326.444652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Chiefs48c25,000$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,999.9814450%72 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Chiefs50c23,059$11,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,465.2664747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Chiefs49c17,850$8,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,662.53863.2%24 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Jaguars52c16,969$8,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,151.7910566.7%70 W · 35 L+12.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Jaguars50c14,372$7,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,186.0124551%125 W · 120 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Jaguars52c14,081$7,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,694.9911649.1%57 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Chiefs49c11,255$5,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,514.9214154.6%77 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Jaguars53c9,428$4,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,431.311252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Jaguars52c9,000$4,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,28019645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Jaguars52c8,000$4,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,84051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb1e…88d5backed Jaguars52c7,729$4,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7105560%33 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Chiefs47c7,130$3,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,351.1424957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8854…0d9cbacked Chiefs49c6,000$2,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9401747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Jaguars50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50018435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3134…1b18backed Chiefs49c4,047$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0009152.7%48 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Chiefs47c3,986$1,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,873.9337350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Chiefs48c3,849$1,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,847.6841851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Jaguars52c3,650$1,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7524940.8%20 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-19%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Jaguars47c3,171$1,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,692.5741947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…9ed3backed Chiefs49c3,059$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked Chiefs48c2,130$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.155123.5%12 W · 39 L-8.1wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-37.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked Chiefs48c2,067$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.168550.6%43 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Chiefs48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9604542.2%19 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x239a…76e5backed Jaguars53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9405457.4%31 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c86…366bbacked Jaguars52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9602245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8138…c27fbacked Chiefs48c1,987$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.76728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Chiefs50c1,982$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.8711740.2%47 W · 70 L-10.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x637a…6d23backed Jaguars52c1,930$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.42458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3625…333cbacked Chiefs54c1,892$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,021.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Chiefs54c1,671$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.2829356%164 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Chiefs48c1,050$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5047526.7%20 W · 55 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x007b…adc6backed Chiefs50c1,049$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.4313641.9%57 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Jaguars50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50026650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Jaguars51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49010434.6%36 W · 68 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed Chiefs49c969.39$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4751656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64ff…8217backed Chiefs53c943.4$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x242e…ee63backed Jaguars53c942.91$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.171353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9925…e33ebacked Chiefs48c937.5$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4503565.7%23 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+19.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd1b0…6eaebacked Jaguars53c818.87$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.87850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Chiefs49c778$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.7377052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14c9…c193backed Chiefs48c720$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.61127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.26per pick53cpaid-53.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Jaguars51c650.79$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.7583447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01ee…9b19backed Chiefs48c624.59$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.81266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+57.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc57b…0a2bbacked Chiefs50c602.06$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2996536.9%24 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2619…9f4ebacked Jaguars50c570.74$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.3710752.3%56 W · 51 L+7.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7851…d471backed Jaguars51c499.99$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24514151.8%73 W · 68 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Chiefs50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014344.1%63 W · 80 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Jaguars53c400$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1898951.7%46 W · 43 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Chiefs50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20019436.6%71 W · 123 L-14.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a33…2534backed Chiefs48c400$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1927436.5%27 W · 47 L-7.8wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7853…e211backed Chiefs51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+65.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0154…793bbacked Jaguars52c389$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.82771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick39cpaid+68.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3c3…3242backed Jaguars53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.3612151.2%62 W · 59 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x194f…3d95backed Jaguars51c377$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.73728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-50%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Jaguars51c375.45$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.979245.7%42 W · 50 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35de…b39abacked Chiefs54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcba…4d0bbacked Chiefs50c320$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-30.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…f8bebacked Jaguars51c306.12$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15019459.3%115 W · 79 L+15.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+15.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Chiefs51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15313347.4%63 W · 70 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Chiefs49c263$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.7427835.3%98 W · 180 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Chiefs60c260$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.8368446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Jaguars47c250$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.53652.8%19 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Jaguars54c250$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11518044.4%80 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Chiefs49c240$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.617547.4%83 W · 92 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Chiefs47c239.53$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.581,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Chiefs48c229.17$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010763.6%68 W · 39 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Chiefs49c211$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.3910345.6%47 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd034…48a2backed Chiefs51c208.98$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.58933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f3b…e349backed Chiefs48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Jaguars50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10055345%249 W · 304 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dd1…009bbacked Chiefs49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983354.5%18 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64f0…7b1fbacked Chiefs50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001540%6 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb21c…3aedbacked Jaguars51c199.99$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7701…24e6backed Chiefs49c199.99$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9716845.8%77 W · 91 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Jaguars51c197.2$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.6341248.5%200 W · 212 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Jaguars52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3122349.8%111 W · 112 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a45…1405backed Chiefs49c182.27$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897749.4%38 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3b1…7be8backed Chiefs48c175.96$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.46475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+45.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ecc…6b37backed Chiefs49c171$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.792030%6 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-48.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Chiefs49c153.55$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.246553.8%35 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Jaguars20c150$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.61330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-16.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa492…a079backed Jaguars52c144.23$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.232050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x864a…7cacbacked Chiefs49c135.71$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.512850%64 W · 64 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc17…289abacked Jaguars52c135$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.85337.7%20 W · 33 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Jaguars49c125$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7520542%86 W · 119 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed Chiefs49c121.71$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6414550.3%73 W · 72 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3853…a3d3backed Jaguars53c115$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.052254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Chiefs46c108.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7727644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93c4…dca6backed Chiefs48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504528.9%13 W · 32 L-8.2wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-44.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5cb3…5874backed Chiefs49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501450%7 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c7d…423fbacked Chiefs48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4814337.8%54 W · 89 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.