NFL · resolved market
Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 46.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x347b6a086e3fa677d24dece8dfc768b797db0a2e95ddddb5af126fa9ff04bde2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Over | 48c | 35,555$17,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,544.15 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +12.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 52c | 25,662$13,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,401.1 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 52c | 10,510$5,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,465.2 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 21c | 1,785$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.73 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 80c | 1,440$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.2 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Over | 46c | 1,045$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.21 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4a…6a50backed Under | 54c | 1,000$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2626…93abbacked Over | 48c | 440$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 79c | 379.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 45c | 278.18$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9205…ce7fbacked Under | 55c | 278.18$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 47c | 177.39$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.02 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed Over | 47c | 109.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e92…cd3dbacked Over | 47c | 107$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75e…bc00backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4c…0314backed Under | 55c | 45.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -5.5wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…bf01backed Under | 55c | 34.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 46.5this page
- Chiefs vs. JaguarsJaguars won
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 42.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 44.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 45.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 47.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 52.5Over won
- Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-1.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Jaguars (-4.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Jaguars (-6.5)Chiefs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.