TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 44.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,230
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,346

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,230 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9267…0f9abacked Under46c2,716$1,239 inLost-$1,239.2224652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Over52c2,347$1,226 inWon+$1,121.1124551%125 W · 120 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x052c…404ebacked Under48c2,101$1,000 inLost-$1,0002050%10 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9830…df31backed Over54c2,000$1,080 inWon+$920425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x007b…adc6backed Over56c1,943$1,094 inWon+$848.3513641.9%57 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under46c1,500$690 inLost-$6908551.8%44 W · 41 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over54c1,414$764 inWon+$650.51,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Under50c1,200$600 inLost-$60011446.5%53 W · 61 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under45c1,081$486 inLost-$486.2841851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Over50c1,065$533 inWon+$532.510566.7%70 W · 35 L+12.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under42c862.07$362 inLost-$362.0722548.4%109 W · 116 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9925…e33ebacked Over56c625.43$350 inWon+$275.293565.7%23 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+19.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Over54c444.44$240 inWon+$204.4428047.5%133 W · 147 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Over54c350$189 inWon+$1617850%39 W · 39 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Under45c225.25$102 inLost-$101.841248.5%200 W · 212 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad0b…8030backed Under46c217.39$100 inLost-$1003638.9%14 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe611…0ae4backed Over53c200$106 inWon+$946761.2%41 W · 26 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0bce…558cbacked Over55c181.73$100 inWon+$81.7816275.3%122 W · 40 L+17.3wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+17.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under45c180$81 inLost-$80.6477052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e52…6577backed Over43c116.67$50 inWon+$66.671435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5696…b3aabacked Under46c76.09$35 inLost-$356560%39 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Under55c66.67$37 inLost-$36.6761148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2838…32bbbacked Under60c50$30 inLost-$3014860.8%90 W · 58 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fce…3a01backed Over54c25$14 inWon+$11.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over50c24.8$12 inWon+$12.464747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.