NFL · resolved market
Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x193488b6e4cde9c9d5b1c1487454bfa7f843ab63312eaa3e95510830571c5774
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Under | 58c | 12,034$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Over | 42c | 10,000$4,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,800 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 56c | 6,693$3,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,747.82 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 44c | 6,531$2,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,657.46 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 41c | 2,029$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.28 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 43c | 531.32$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.85 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…2e41backed Under | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 43c | 250$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Under | 57c | 250$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 74c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…d771backed Under | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Under | 57c | 36.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Over | 43c | 36.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…f165backed Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 47.5this page
- Chiefs vs. JaguarsJaguars won
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 42.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 44.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 45.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 46.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 52.5Over won
- Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-1.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Jaguars (-4.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Jaguars (-6.5)Chiefs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.