NFL · resolved market
Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 45.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d7b7fa939eaa641cac8ff3c0476149eb3eaba2a988e747ba2b154958aaa4a80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $157,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $161,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Under | 50c | 34,332$17,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,100 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -8.5wins | -0.29per pick | 50cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 50c | 26,960$13,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,479.94 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 51c | 25,000$12,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,249.99 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 50c | 24,204$12,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,017.83 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Over | 50c | 18,305$9,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,202.27 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Over | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,500 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2943…177abacked Under | 51c | 13,000$6,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,630 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 49c | 11,182$5,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,479.18 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Under | 51c | 10,199$5,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,201.49 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Over | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 10,000$5,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,050 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Under | 50c | 6,911$3,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,469.06 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7143…071abacked Under | 51c | 6,337$3,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,231.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…ae9fbacked Over | 49c | 5,400$2,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,754 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59c…8af7backed Over | 49c | 5,344$2,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,725.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed Under | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6389…80babacked Over | 49c | 4,800$2,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,448 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…4828backed Under | 51c | 4,282$2,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,183.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Under | 59c | 4,000$2,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,360 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…5576backed Under | 50c | 3,524$1,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,762 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d99…cb50backed Over | 50c | 3,156$1,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,563.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 49c | 2,290$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.4 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…fd74backed Over | 51c | 2,200$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0706…6ffebacked Under | 49c | 2,200$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Over | 49c | 2,160$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.6 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +134.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1993…60e9backed Over | 50c | 2,050$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…c5febacked Over | 51c | 1,474$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Under | 49c | 1,082$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.25 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 50c | 1,065$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.5 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 52c | 1,000$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 48c | 968.32$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.24 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4a…6a50backed Under | 50c | 950$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f58…187cbacked Under | 50c | 805$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Over | 49c | 800$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 50c | 727.83$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.88 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Over | 49c | 556$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.56 | 143 | 66.4%95 W · 48 L | +13.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa52c…ef80backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Over | 52c | 495.74$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.96 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 49c | 461$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.11 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Over | 49c | 448.98$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.98 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…3cfcbacked Under | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…3d95backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2626…93abbacked Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Over | 51c | 392.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.99 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…5968backed Under | 49c | 343.91$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.52 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Over | 49c | 340.94$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.88 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +12.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c62…fe5abacked Over | 49c | 299.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Over | 51c | 250$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4213…279ebacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 126 | 34.1%43 W · 83 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf5…6638backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe478…28eabacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a18…a49abacked Under | 49c | 186.53$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 174$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.33 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe73f…740bbacked Under | 50c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…0478backed Over | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 50c | 124.97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.12 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3853…a3d3backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Under | 51c | 118.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 49c | 111$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e92…cd3dbacked Over | 49c | 102$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75e…bc00backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…aa71backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 47c | 78.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 276 | 44.2%122 W · 154 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a03…47c1backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Over | 50c | 61.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Over | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c46…3e5cbacked Over | 50c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed Over | 52c | 48.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…f165backed Over | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…18cebacked Under | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe914…1707backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…9104backed Under | 56c | 27.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 48c | 21.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe36d…d7d3backed Over | 50c | 20.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbd…7ca7backed Under | 51c | 20.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…cb75backed Over | 50c | 20.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99de…a3d4backed Under | 51c | 20.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bad…34eebacked Over | 50c | 20.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf998…7e08backed Under | 51c | 20.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…7937backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c77…6731backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 45.5this page
- Chiefs vs. JaguarsJaguars won
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 42.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 44.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 46.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 47.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 52.5Over won
- Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-1.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Jaguars (-4.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Jaguars (-6.5)Chiefs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.