TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 45.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$157,535
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$161,422

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,535 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc9af…6371backed Under50c34,332$17,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,1002920.7%6 W · 23 L-8.5wins-0.29per pick50cpaid-57.6%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Over50c26,960$13,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,479.9424456.6%138 W · 106 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Over51c25,000$12,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,249.9931240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Under50c24,204$12,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,017.8324652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Over50c18,305$9,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,202.2716836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Over50c15,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,50024551%125 W · 120 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2943…177abacked Under51c13,000$6,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,63010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Under49c11,182$5,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,479.1844652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Under51c10,199$5,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,201.494637%17 W · 29 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Over49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1008959.6%53 W · 36 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under51c10,000$5,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,05051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Under50c6,911$3,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,469.069245.7%42 W · 50 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7143…071abacked Under51c6,337$3,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,231.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…ae9fbacked Over49c5,400$2,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb59c…8af7backed Over49c5,344$2,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,725.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed Under49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4506338.1%24 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6389…80babacked Over49c4,800$2,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4481100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3389…4828backed Under51c4,282$2,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,183.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Under59c4,000$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,36010462.5%65 W · 39 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+45.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3839…5576backed Under50c3,524$1,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,762250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d99…cb50backed Over50c3,156$1,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,563.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over49c2,290$1,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,172.464747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b36…fd74backed Over51c2,200$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0782231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0706…6ffebacked Under49c2,200$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,07830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Over49c2,160$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,101.67657.9%44 W · 32 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+134.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1993…60e9backed Over50c2,050$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,025250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf79c…c5febacked Over51c1,474$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.21250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Under49c1,082$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.257440.5%30 W · 44 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over50c1,065$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.51,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Over52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4807444.6%33 W · 41 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Over52c1,000$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48526547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under48c968.32$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.2441851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d4a…6a50backed Under50c950$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f58…187cbacked Under50c805$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed Over50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40011744.4%52 W · 65 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Over49c800$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40815044.7%67 W · 83 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Under50c727.83$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.8841248.5%200 W · 212 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Over52c600$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28818044.4%80 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Over49c556$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.5614366.4%95 W · 48 L+13.0wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa52c…ef80backed Under51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+38.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Over52c495.74$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.966650%33 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over49c461$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.1131450%157 W · 157 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Over49c448.98$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.982152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe544…3cfcbacked Under49c400$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1965550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x194f…3d95backed Under50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-50%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2626…93abbacked Over52c400$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Over51c392.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.9916351.5%84 W · 79 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2214…5968backed Under49c343.91$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.523844.7%17 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Over49c340.94$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.8810566.7%70 W · 35 L+12.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7c62…fe5abacked Over49c299.99$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1532245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Over51c250$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.513455.2%74 W · 60 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Under49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10028047.5%133 W · 147 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4213…279ebacked Under49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002458.3%14 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Over52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3112634.1%43 W · 83 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbf5…6638backed Over52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3111637.9%44 W · 72 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe478…28eabacked Under53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a18…a49abacked Under49c186.53$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Over49c174$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.3383447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe73f…740bbacked Under50c150$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.254254.8%23 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e4…0478backed Over52c144.23$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.23850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Over50c124.97$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.1241947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3853…a3d3backed Under50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd774…82cdbacked Under51c118.15$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4413339.8%53 W · 80 L-10.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over49c111$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.6177052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e92…cd3dbacked Over49c102$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.022433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Under49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4931540.6%128 W · 187 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd75e…bc00backed Under50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0078…bca0backed Under51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5022745.4%103 W · 124 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44c1…aa71backed Under50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over47c78.29$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4627644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a03…47c1backed Over50c70$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355052%26 W · 24 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Under51c68.63$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3515855.7%88 W · 70 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked Over50c61.14$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5719651.5%101 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22b8…7b6ebacked Over50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3017060.6%103 W · 67 L+12.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2000…df78backed Over52c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.820851%106 W · 102 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2361…e16ebacked Over49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.61553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+24.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c46…3e5cbacked Over50c51$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.51172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Over49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.524243.4%105 W · 137 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5340…5e2bbacked Over50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2510750.5%54 W · 53 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Over52c48.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0817741.8%74 W · 103 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7fec…c965backed Over52c48.07$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.071233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c96…f165backed Over52c42.31$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.311241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6cc…18cebacked Under50c42$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216046.7%28 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cf3…2b57backed Over49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.823161.3%19 W · 12 L+4.1wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+41.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe914…1707backed Over50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202931%9 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-41.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Over50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158048.8%39 W · 41 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c0a…9104backed Under56c27.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-28.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Under48c21.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5361148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe36d…d7d3backed Over50c20.08$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fbd…7ca7backed Under51c20.08$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed0c…cb75backed Over50c20.04$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+64.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99de…a3d4backed Under51c20.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.22250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bad…34eebacked Over50c20.02$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.01250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf998…7e08backed Under51c20.02$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick69cpaid-57.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe522…7937backed Over50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick65cpaid+63.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c77…6731backed Under51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.