NFL · resolved market
Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52f7aaaf949f7e418fc5aba4a4dc8f138cd0f2f38942607afe0a81f0ade5149b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chiefsof Jaguars, Chiefs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $184,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $184,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $184,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Chiefs | 74c | 165,560$123,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,245.65 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Jaguars | 26c | 85,456$22,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,212.62 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Jaguars | 25c | 53,251$13,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,312.82 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Jaguars | 25c | 22,682$5,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,781.25 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Jaguars | 25c | 13,350$3,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,337.5 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +12.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3672…edbdbacked Chiefs | 74c | 13,000$9,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,350 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -5.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Jaguars | 25c | 3,157$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.75 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Chiefs | 75c | 1,388$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.26 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Jaguars | 21c | 1,183$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.53 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4385…16bdbacked Jaguars | 26c | 1,153$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.84 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Chiefs | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Jaguars | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed Chiefs | 76c | 499.38$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.85 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Chiefs | 72c | 461.32$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.17 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Jaguars | 34c | 360$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.6 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Jaguars | 26c | 270$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Chiefs | 73c | 253.62$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Jaguars | 26c | 223.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c3…3800backed Jaguars | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Jaguars | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9205…ce7fbacked Jaguars | 27c | 189.78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa7…e577backed Chiefs | 75c | 133.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -4.0wins | -0.37per pick | 73cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…baefbacked Jaguars | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Jaguars | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 276 | 44.2%122 W · 154 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…0d7dbacked Jaguars | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7687…d750backed Chiefs | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Chiefs | 73c | 46.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9abd…c0edbacked Jaguars | 27c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…99bebacked Chiefs | 76c | 36.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b7…32a7backed Chiefs | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)this page
- Chiefs vs. JaguarsJaguars won
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 42.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 44.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 45.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 46.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 47.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars: O/U 52.5Over won
- Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-1.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-4.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Jaguars (-6.5)Chiefs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.