TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Commanders vs. Cowboys

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cowboysof Commanders, Cowboys
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,507,703
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,751,267

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,507,703 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 514 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed88…f3c4backed Commanders47c857,699$405,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405,956.388344.6%37 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Cowboys57c279,832$158,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121,611.8747738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Cowboys56c221,788$124,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97,577.3122950.2%115 W · 114 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Cowboys53c200,587$106,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94,275.6711145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Cowboys52c145,774$75,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,971.5212352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Cowboys53c100,013$53,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,006.136248.4%30 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Commanders47c76,663$36,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,031.5619553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Cowboys53c75,963$40,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,703.6653348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fce…2229backed Cowboys67c70,000$46,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,1001855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Commanders32c56,326$17,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,941.3441947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Cowboys53c50,000$26,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,5001681.3%13 W · 3 L+4.2wins+0.27per pick55cpaid+147.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Cowboys52c50,000$26,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,00024456.6%138 W · 106 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf6e…d642backed Commanders20c47,475$9,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,485742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Commanders31c44,625$13,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,925.0930043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Commanders47c40,000$18,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,799.9917454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Cowboys48c35,831$17,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,612.131240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Cowboys69c33,616$23,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,555.8414349%70 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Commanders47c32,613$15,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,360.7431350.2%157 W · 156 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Commanders47c31,655$14,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,912.8733553.4%179 W · 156 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Commanders13c30,079$3,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,933.720026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ab…f2c3backed Cowboys67c27,180$18,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,092.673351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Cowboys52c27,018$14,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,968.5724652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Cowboys53c26,989$14,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,684.9111445.6%52 W · 62 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed Cowboys52c23,612$12,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,333.793979.5%31 W · 8 L+7.2wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Commanders47c20,000$9,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,4006645.5%30 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Cowboys53c16,600$8,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,76616545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Cowboys53c15,000$7,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,05011649.1%57 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Commanders17c15,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,55013654.4%74 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Cowboys59c14,158$8,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,856.8544652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Cowboys80c14,000$11,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,80013065.4%85 W · 45 L+17.2wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+37.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Cowboys53c12,005$6,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,663.3114951%76 W · 73 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Commanders39c11,841$4,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,609.4312138.8%47 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x576d…767dbacked Cowboys75c11,228$8,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,862.131145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Cowboys52c11,111$5,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,333.2810442.3%44 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1484…cafebacked Cowboys74c10,228$7,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,621.494755.3%26 W · 21 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Commanders47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,7008959.6%53 W · 36 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Commanders0c9,778$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.371128%9 W · 103 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+413.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3451…49a5backed Cowboys53c9,606$5,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,514.66837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Commanders47c9,447$4,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,453.4541248.5%200 W · 212 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Commanders50c9,265$4,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,677.1230743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Cowboys54c9,259$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,259.2618650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b8c…abbabacked Cowboys54c9,259$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,259.267153.5%38 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Cowboys74c8,940$6,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,324.793256.3%18 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1e…88d5backed Commanders48c8,770$4,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,181.915560%33 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Commanders0c8,707$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.935679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Commanders47c8,500$3,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,994.998845.5%40 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc210…f0cabacked Cowboys53c8,340$4,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,919.622638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-28.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x540c…a634backed Commanders48c8,331$3,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9995549.1%27 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Commanders24c8,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,95036246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Cowboys53c7,500$3,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,524.9814450%72 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed Commanders47c7,000$3,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2903056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Commanders47c6,318$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00013142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Commanders46c6,275$2,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,886.54940.8%20 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-19%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Cowboys57c6,016$3,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,594.8631854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Commanders46c6,000$2,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,759.9714342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Cowboys53c5,855$3,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,751.7220039.5%79 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Cowboys50c5,614$2,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,789.4483447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Commanders46c5,193$2,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,364.2241851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Commanders49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,45025137.5%94 W · 157 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Cowboys52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.973444.1%15 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xade8…b0bdbacked Commanders30c4,794$1,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,433.22552%13 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Commanders1c4,619$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.881486.8%10 W · 138 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+296.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1e0…8913backed Cowboys54c4,539$2,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,109.314957.1%28 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4b1…a75ebacked Commanders22c4,471$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005527.3%15 W · 40 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-38.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Cowboys51c4,451$2,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,180.913633.3%12 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-42.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Commanders47c4,000$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,879.9918435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Commanders46c3,658$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.5912144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Commanders1c3,350$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.51013%3 W · 98 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Commanders47c3,191$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.7718140.9%74 W · 107 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x954b…eb22backed Cowboys53c3,184$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,483.762540%10 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09f8…e156backed Commanders48c3,055$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,455.32737%10 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+123.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf1c…96cfbacked Commanders38c2,965$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.53450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc03…1548backed Cowboys54c2,963$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,362.966624.2%16 W · 50 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+81.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Cowboys53c2,930$1,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,377.0537350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x61d0…1d86backed Commanders8c2,751$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.652050%10 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfdf1…c324backed Cowboys53c2,744$1,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,289.682152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Cowboys73c2,654$1,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.3650242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7de0…7c66backed Commanders19c2,647$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50011027.3%30 W · 80 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Commanders48c2,604$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2509949.5%49 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Commanders47c2,600$1,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,21626648.9%130 W · 136 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Commanders54c2,528$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,365.016339.7%25 W · 38 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Commanders45c2,503$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.1327644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Commanders48c2,500$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20017144.4%76 W · 95 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Cowboys54c2,500$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1506459.4%38 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+38.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Cowboys56c2,488$1,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.7326547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cowboys52c2,183$1,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.981,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8d…f2c7backed Commanders48c2,100$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-46%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Commanders47c2,100$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98751352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Cowboys53c2,100$1,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98711452.6%60 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x759b…2ab3backed Cowboys48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.332259.1%13 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.20per pick39cpaid+246.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Cowboys49c2,070$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.75048%24 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89cd…f03bbacked Cowboys60c2,015$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.277456.8%42 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Cowboys52c2,000$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95020646.1%95 W · 111 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Cowboys53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.997050%35 W · 35 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc8…dc52backed Cowboys53c1,914$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.52250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Commanders1c1,888$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.664311.6%7 W · 424 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb60c…72f6backed Commanders48c1,885$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd547…8a9fbacked Cowboys53c1,871$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.632740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x81ea…668bbacked Cowboys59c1,768$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.84771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d4…5862backed Commanders55c1,767$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9753644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.