NFL · resolved market
Commanders vs. Cowboys: O/U 54.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87ef64b3b0266a962d46b49d68d3ede2fef5e6fb4c763e95e047cae948aad3f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 49c | 82,178$40,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,203.02 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Over | 51c | 74,390$37,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,451.21 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 51c | 10,112$5,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,954.88 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 52c | 7,051$3,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,370.76 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 48c | 6,640$3,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,204.79 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 4,281$2,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,183.31 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 50c | 1,730$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.55 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 49c | 1,170$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.2 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Over | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Over | 53c | 873.04$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.33 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 782$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.18 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 52c | 770$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.4 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 693.43$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.94 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022a…df5ebacked Under | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 188 | 43.1%81 W · 107 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Under | 51c | 220$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 49c | 210$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Over | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…73fdbacked Over | 51c | 133.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 52c | 111.08$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4efb…76a0backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…e7d8backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -8.0wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Over | 51c | 42.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 206 | 34.5%71 W · 135 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Over | 49c | 39.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 50c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…dafdbacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…c906backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebd3…c5f4backed Over | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Commanders vs. Cowboys: O/U 54.5this page
- Commanders vs. CowboysCowboys won
- Commanders vs. Cowboys: O/U 53.5Over won
- Commanders vs. Cowboys: O/U 55.5Over won
- Spread: Commanders (-1.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Commanders (-2.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Commanders (-3.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Cowboys (-1.5)Cowboys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.