Middle East · resolved market
Israel military response against Iran in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e57c29fd4542e9dd9588966f198307890cef3c06225afc395acd9c8ffa31d74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,265,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,890,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,265,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,438 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 75c | 313,930$234,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79,454.18 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ee…d947backed No | 32c | 118,409$37,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,729.3 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfd…6e4abacked Yes | 46c | 93,723$42,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,077.29 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +10.0wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 38c | 89,597$33,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,839 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…15b5backed No | 25c | 88,806$22,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,621.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +36%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed Yes | 52c | 76,155$39,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,747.39 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e0…7406backed No | 52c | 66,818$34,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,883.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 61c | 61,335$37,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,934.1 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 23c | 60,506$14,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,187.68 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 46c | 51,941$23,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,066.32 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…c8f2backed No | 1c | 50,184$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 26c | 47,179$12,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,353.87 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed No | 47c | 45,970$21,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,472 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de4…081cbacked Yes | 68c | 44,102$29,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,172.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d23…8f86backed No | 13c | 43,023$5,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,594.06 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked No | 37c | 40,416$14,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,912.05 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5730…a3f3backed No | 1c | 38,376$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 18c | 37,973$6,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,841.04 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece1…2b04backed No | 6c | 37,892$2,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,187.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked No | 32c | 37,657$11,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,903.73 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…44a5backed Yes | 75c | 36,978$27,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,322.44 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…a669backed Yes | 75c | 36,091$27,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,067.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed Yes | 56c | 35,996$20,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,910.95 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…2339backed No | 25c | 34,439$8,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,587.35 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed No | 1c | 32,800$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.86 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Yes | 49c | 31,083$15,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,975.22 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59cf…4275backed Yes | 54c | 29,576$16,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,576.39 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 41cpaid | +126%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 51c | 28,668$14,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,508.8 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…4a37backed No | 46c | 25,196$11,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,691.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed Yes | 76c | 25,196$19,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,159.44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 3c | 24,193$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.3 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…acb7backed No | 45c | 22,961$10,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,395.33 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked No | 40c | 22,921$9,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,278.66 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d80…7210backed No | 40c | 21,814$8,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,641.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21dc…3c76backed No | 1c | 20,500$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…f1b3backed No | 0c | 20,200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 51c | 20,000$10,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,760 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…5208backed No | 37c | 19,438$7,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,253.27 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8081…6d62backed No | 21c | 19,372$4,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,162.15 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…1076backed Yes | 60c | 19,343$11,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,690.33 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…ee2ebacked Yes | 58c | 18,802$10,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,972.16 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x365a…b08ebacked No | 2c | 18,778$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9206…5b3ebacked No | 54c | 18,684$10,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,079.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1714…0986backed No | 44c | 18,637$8,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,259.19 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8be…a6bcbacked No | 54c | 18,495$9,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,950.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3163…10e2backed Yes | 46c | 18,495$8,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,950.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed No | 44c | 17,961$7,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,904.48 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked No | 37c | 17,707$6,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,514.94 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a69…e832backed No | 38c | 17,690$6,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,704.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 28c | 16,938$4,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,697.28 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed No | 42c | 16,779$7,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,093.01 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 55c | 15,241$8,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,789.93 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…a1fbbacked No | 3c | 14,751$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 31c | 14,369$4,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,453.59 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…2662backed No | 54c | 14,098$7,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,663.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…cdb7backed No | 54c | 12,950$6,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,967.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1384…c804backed Yes | 46c | 12,950$5,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,967.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…c1f6backed Yes | 44c | 12,640$5,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,015.15 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.53per pick | 33cpaid | +308.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…711bbacked No | 38c | 12,431$4,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,664.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes | 70c | 12,155$8,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,641.96 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312b…cafebacked No | 18c | 11,966$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,119.88 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 45c | 11,888$5,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,301.38 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…ee85backed No | 16c | 11,812$1,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,916.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x346c…a160backed No | 13c | 11,311$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…343dbacked Yes | 54c | 11,268$6,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,219.91 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c8…c493backed Yes | 50c | 10,975$5,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,503.97 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed No | 59c | 10,639$6,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,296.25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked No | 33c | 10,500$3,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,435.44 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed No | 45c | 10,360$4,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,709.21 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 55c | 10,283$5,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,657.02 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…b5f3backed No | 3c | 10,223$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f36…6c9cbacked No | 3c | 10,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed Yes | 50c | 9,974$5,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,951.64 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5310…a500backed Yes | 50c | 9,892$4,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,921.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5335…0b0fbacked No | 47c | 9,886$4,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,602.55 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…8c0dbacked No | 31c | 9,274$2,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,843.9 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…68ddbacked Yes | 64c | 9,116$5,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,308.52 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 46c | 9,016$4,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,191.62 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd874…a314backed No | 28c | 8,966$2,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,488.21 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…dbafbacked No | 65c | 8,817$5,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,718.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 62c | 8,297$5,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,131.9 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…aa81backed No | 43c | 8,111$3,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,459.2 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…2354backed No | 16c | 8,045$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262.62 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…8defbacked Yes | 51c | 7,891$3,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,905.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9790…85d7backed No | 43c | 7,883$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,399.81 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 33cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc525…396fbacked No | 38c | 7,750$2,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,967.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…2038backed No | 45c | 7,680$3,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,443.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b60…f259backed Yes | 80c | 7,513$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,512.22 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 49c | 7,469$3,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,823.39 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a9…6f67backed No | 47c | 7,332$3,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,452.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…28a1backed No | 28c | 7,317$2,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,041.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…9228backed Yes | 68c | 7,170$4,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,265.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked No | 38c | 7,016$2,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,693.83 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed No | 33c | 7,000$2,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,283.13 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…a478backed Yes | 49c | 6,845$3,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,507.06 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…730bbacked No | 15c | 6,725$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…c41dbacked No | 59c | 6,559$3,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,871.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…4f16backed No | 23c | 6,430$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 48c | 6,311$3,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,309.04 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8271…2d20backed No | 34c | 6,282$2,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.