NFL · resolved market
Spread: Colts (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb667f709da5df7ee5b6f93cf343144be9794446daa4be94f3d3699322b66450e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardinalsof Colts, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Cardinals | 47c | 35,700$16,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,923.99 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Colts | 53c | 24,282$12,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,945.18 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Colts | 55c | 12,657$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac1…45dbbacked Colts | 55c | 10,000$5,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,500 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Colts | 52c | 8,448$4,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,392.96 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Cardinals | 45c | 7,923$3,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,357.5 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Colts | 53c | 3,765$1,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995.53 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cardinals | 42c | 2,655$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550.8 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Colts | 58c | 2,620$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.6 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Colts | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Cardinals | 40c | 1,780$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.78 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Cardinals | 44c | 1,248$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.62 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Cardinals | 46c | 1,200$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…f731backed Colts | 59c | 1,154$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.6 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -6.1wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Cardinals | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Cardinals | 36c | 875.47$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.95 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cardinals | 45c | 746.55$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.6 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked Cardinals | 44c | 600$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Cardinals | 48c | 600$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Colts | 55c | 546$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.3 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Cardinals | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Colts | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35de…b39abacked Colts | 58c | 398.94$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…e8d0backed Colts | 52c | 298$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.96 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cb…ac5abacked Colts | 59c | 297.48$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Cardinals | 45c | 293.43$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.91 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Colts | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Colts | 55c | 249.93$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.12 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Cardinals | 46c | 220$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…4c9bbacked Colts | 52c | 210.81$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Cardinals | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.31 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Cardinals | 48c | 124.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Cardinals | 44c | 108$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3a…b091backed Colts | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f55…535dbacked Cardinals | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…24e6backed Colts | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 168 | 45.8%77 W · 91 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Cardinals | 38c | 90.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa492…a079backed Colts | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…7239backed Colts | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Cardinals | 42c | 66.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Colts | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c96…3485backed Cardinals | 45c | 51.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Colts | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3491…6037backed Colts | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…ce1cbacked Colts | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Colts | 55c | 36.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked Colts | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…74f0backed Colts | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f52…de78backed Colts | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Cardinals | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cardinals | 41c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…eb97backed Colts | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Colts (-6.5)this page
- Cardinals vs. ColtsColts won
- Cardinals vs. Colts: O/U 46.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Colts: O/U 47.5Over won
- Spread: Colts (-7.5)Cardinals won
- Spread: Colts (-8.5)Cardinals won
- Spread: Colts (-9.5)Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.