NFL · resolved market
Cardinals vs. Colts: O/U 46.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64556cb749de2b4c5a42c028c35223c7d3a2735183ec82833b7e13098a5137d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 55c | 5,027$2,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,262.75 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe965…6559backed Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 50c | 2,848$1,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,424 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x637a…6d23backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 51c | 1,956$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.59 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 48c | 1,515$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.84 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Over | 49c | 1,195$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.57 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 50c | 1,018$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.03 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 50c | 999.99$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 49c | 899.85$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.24 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 51c | 879.7$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.65 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Over | 50c | 800.42$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.42 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 214.94$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.24 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Over | 49c | 176.94$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.24 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeeb…645fbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 46c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 36.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2059…5203backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7794…8df9backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 47c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked Over | 49c | 26.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2e…3ef0backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cardinals vs. Colts: O/U 46.5this page
- Cardinals vs. ColtsColts won
- Cardinals vs. Colts: O/U 47.5Over won
- Spread: Colts (-6.5)Cardinals won
- Spread: Colts (-7.5)Cardinals won
- Spread: Colts (-8.5)Cardinals won
- Spread: Colts (-9.5)Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.