NFL · resolved market
Spread: Colts (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe560c27a8a595315bd0234e205487b3943bf74510f47e3b6520d04b7b75b580
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardinalsof Colts, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Cardinals | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked Colts | 48c | 3,382$1,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,623.25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.33per pick | 51cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Cardinals | 52c | 3,382$1,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,623.25 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Colts | 50c | 2,905$1,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.25 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Colts | 50c | 1,239$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.51 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Colts | 50c | 1,163$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.73 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Colts | 47c | 1,090$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.39 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Cardinals | 57c | 910$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.92 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Colts | 43c | 910$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.92 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Cardinals | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.72 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Colts | 50c | 396$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Cardinals | 53c | 260$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.2 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Colts | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Colts | 48c | 155$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.3 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Cardinals | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4f…86b3backed Colts | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Cardinals | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Colts | 51c | 57.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Cardinals | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Cardinals | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Colts | 50c | 36.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Colts | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Colts (-9.5)this page
- Cardinals vs. ColtsColts won
- Cardinals vs. Colts: O/U 46.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Colts: O/U 47.5Over won
- Spread: Colts (-6.5)Cardinals won
- Spread: Colts (-7.5)Cardinals won
- Spread: Colts (-8.5)Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.