NFL · resolved market
Spread: Colts (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60aa1ddda7413d83e25c28c483cc444d6f46b4996a2af00ecd929b841f282780
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardinalsof Colts, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Cardinals | 48c | 23,696$11,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,321.91 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Cardinals | 52c | 15,000$7,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,200 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Colts | 52c | 8,698$4,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,523 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Colts | 51c | 8,005$4,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,107.7 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Colts | 52c | 7,500$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,900 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Colts | 54c | 6,500$3,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,479.99 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Colts | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cardinals | 46c | 4,916$2,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,654.51 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Cardinals | 51c | 4,735$2,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,332.34 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Colts | 54c | 3,697$1,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,996.8 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…f3c4backed Cardinals | 47c | 3,029$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,605.56 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Cardinals | 46c | 2,293$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.22 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Cardinals | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Colts | 49c | 1,850$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.97 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Cardinals | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Cardinals | 51c | 1,000$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.33 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…1b18backed Colts | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b3…a5d6backed Colts | 54c | 675.93$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83f7…fb38backed Colts | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Cardinals | 46c | 240$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.7 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Colts | 54c | 231.48$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Cardinals | 52c | 119.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…aa01backed Colts | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Colts | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8212backed Colts | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Cardinals | 48c | 94.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…f1b3backed Colts | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Cardinals | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x861d…c6bfbacked Colts | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Colts | 46c | 60.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Colts | 53c | 51.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Cardinals | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Colts | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Colts | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de7…ef81backed Colts | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 52cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d3…8743backed Colts | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Colts | 47c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3e…a9e5backed Cardinals | 46c | 31.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Colts | 54c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Colts | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Colts (-7.5)this page
- Cardinals vs. ColtsColts won
- Cardinals vs. Colts: O/U 46.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Colts: O/U 47.5Over won
- Spread: Colts (-6.5)Cardinals won
- Spread: Colts (-8.5)Cardinals won
- Spread: Colts (-9.5)Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.