College Football · resolved market
Will Ohio State beat Notre Dame by 9 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f14c12c7ba255c7363bde933c179f916c120407fda26b98e776f33983624f76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ohio Stof Ohio St, Notre Dame
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2863…0e3ebacked Notre Dame | 49c | 12,748$6,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,211.93 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…c7e1backed Ohio St | 52c | 12,584$6,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,994.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Ohio St | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Notre Dame | 48c | 2,271$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.43 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Notre Dame | 48c | 1,295$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.95 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Ohio St | 55c | 1,180$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.09 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Notre Dame | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a3…d687backed Notre Dame | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed Ohio St | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Ohio St | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae76…dce5backed Notre Dame | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Ohio St | 50c | 415$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ef…c16cbacked Notre Dame | 51c | 404.88$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Notre Dame | 51c | 256.85$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Notre Dame | 51c | 250$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.5 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Notre Dame | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20c2…1183backed Notre Dame | 51c | 130$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Ohio St | 79c | 124.61$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed Notre Dame | 51c | 100.39$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Ohio St | 56c | 94.66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked Ohio St | 51c | 92.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Ohio St | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f94…35d2backed Ohio St | 56c | 79.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0c…6565backed Notre Dame | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Ohio St | 79c | 75.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeea7…c4d0backed Notre Dame | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 63cpaid | +41%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20e…5998backed Ohio St | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Notre Dame | 50c | 29.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…24e6backed Notre Dame | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed Ohio St | 57c | 20.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Notre Dame | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ohio State beat Notre Dame by 9 or more points?this page
- Will Ohio State and Notre Dame combine for 47 or more points?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.