TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cowboysof Chiefs, Cowboys
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,205,670
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,210,612

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,205,670 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 365 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2643…39aebacked Chiefs51c965,171$495,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495,495.432065%13 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+44.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Chiefs48c710,869$341,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341,217.1117041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Cowboys52c490,658$254,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236,305.4786547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Cowboys52c300,794$156,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144,381.3427454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Cowboys47c243,260$114,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128,927.6416955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Chiefs48c200,000$95,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95,988.8730043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Cowboys49c200,000$98,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102,0004955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Cowboys53c189,890$100,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89,389.7419553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Cowboys50c159,228$78,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80,381.131735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Chiefs48c135,298$64,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64,432.255648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Cowboys49c125,000$61,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,7509359.1%55 W · 38 L+10.2wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Chiefs49c120,000$58,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,80016051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0549…c052backed Cowboys51c120,000$61,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,8005855.2%32 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Cowboys52c119,942$62,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,571.9631240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Chiefs47c64,089$30,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,276.786645.5%30 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Chiefs48c55,990$26,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,924.7347348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Cowboys51c50,437$25,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,468.2353348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Cowboys51c47,407$23,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,427.4283147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Cowboys51c41,913$21,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,518.025850%29 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca36…1e9cbacked Cowboys50c40,000$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,0002653.8%14 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+59.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Chiefs48c37,992$18,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,236.1675852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x569e…4175backed Chiefs49c35,000$17,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,150650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Cowboys50c34,271$17,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,135.191,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Chiefs47c24,688$11,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,619.454837.5%18 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Cowboys51c23,500$11,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,51520755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Cowboys48c20,000$9,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,40017348%83 W · 90 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Chiefs49c20,000$9,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,799.992657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+35.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7bf4…8860backed Chiefs33c20,000$6,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,649.997626.3%20 W · 56 L-7.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-33.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd8f4…efebbacked Chiefs49c18,000$8,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,895.79825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-49.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Cowboys51c14,443$7,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,143.7324056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Cowboys48c14,176$6,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,358.973651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Cowboys51c12,973$6,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,356.9813843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Chiefs47c11,967$5,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,605.4535848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Chiefs48c11,105$5,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,330.1925744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Cowboys52c10,039$5,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,818.826451.6%33 W · 31 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Cowboys51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,90019645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Cowboys52c9,967$5,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,783.9211146.8%52 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Cowboys50c9,436$4,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,715.7737350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Cowboys53c9,434$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,433.9618650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Chiefs50c9,100$4,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5504456.8%25 W · 19 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43fd…99a7backed Chiefs48c8,333$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,999.841450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Cowboys51c8,000$4,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,92026650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b4b…84c9backed Chiefs49c7,911$3,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,856.32633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-35.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Cowboys52c7,692$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,692.314546.7%21 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Cowboys52c7,013$3,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,370.6915555.5%86 W · 69 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Chiefs48c6,448$3,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,095.0444652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x383d…a9f2backed Chiefs48c6,435$3,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,069.956349.2%31 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Chiefs48c6,250$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00014252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e5d…f75dbacked Chiefs50c6,042$3,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,021742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+51.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Chiefs47c6,000$2,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8208351.8%43 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked Cowboys51c5,772$2,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,813.0414837.2%55 W · 93 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Cowboys55c5,321$2,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,374.8520039.5%79 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb78…5206backed Chiefs60c5,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-38.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Cowboys52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40011750.4%59 W · 58 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Cowboys52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.9951352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Cowboys52c4,578$2,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,197.579949.5%49 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Chiefs49c4,500$2,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20526547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79f0…964ebacked Cowboys77c4,500$3,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Cowboys53c4,439$2,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,086.246544.6%29 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x462d…ce9bbacked Chiefs48c4,167$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-41.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Chiefs49c4,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9604264.3%27 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca6…9a97backed Cowboys52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9203652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Cowboys62c3,902$2,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,466.0860049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Cowboys74c3,881$2,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.0468446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Cowboys53c3,820$2,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,795.3411445.6%52 W · 62 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Cowboys53c3,679$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,729.245756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x205b…dd3cbacked Cowboys51c3,414$1,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,669.4314148.2%68 W · 73 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Chiefs48c3,144$1,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,524.1514641.8%61 W · 85 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Chiefs49c3,061$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5005754.4%31 W · 26 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a47…0c54backed Chiefs47c2,969$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4001154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5672…5019backed Cowboys52c2,885$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,384.625141.2%21 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Chiefs49c2,500$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2255246.2%24 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Cowboys53c2,500$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,18026648.9%130 W · 136 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Chiefs47c2,402$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,128.9410650.9%54 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Chiefs49c2,400$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16619436.6%71 W · 123 L-14.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6cc7…cf77backed Cowboys52c2,212$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,061.548144.4%36 W · 45 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Cowboys52c2,194$1,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.3523647%111 W · 125 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x71ff…82f7backed Chiefs47c2,128$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Chiefs49c2,055$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00711255.4%62 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe584…e6e2backed Chiefs49c2,040$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.394934.7%17 W · 32 L-8.3wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-32.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4bdf…9652backed Chiefs48c2,025$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.410356.3%58 W · 45 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Cowboys52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96018044.4%80 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed Chiefs50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Chiefs49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9806264.5%40 W · 22 L+12.4wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+141.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xe13e…c564backed Cowboys49c1,998$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.982339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+37.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Cowboys51c1,946$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.547534.7%26 W · 49 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-28.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Chiefs37c1,904$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.78164.2%52 W · 29 L+12.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+137.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Chiefs47c1,820$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.4631450%157 W · 157 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4862…1a17backed Chiefs42c1,710$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.431952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+73.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Cowboys52c1,700$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81628447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94a5…d1e5backed Chiefs48c1,700$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe727…5e8dbacked Chiefs48c1,667$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80017548%84 W · 91 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Chiefs48c1,563$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7506647%31 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc89d…5909backed Cowboys52c1,538$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.469248.9%45 W · 47 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ac9…9678backed Cowboys51c1,500$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7352040%8 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+34.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Chiefs49c1,470$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71416344.8%73 W · 90 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Cowboys51c1,343$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.5265048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Cowboys52c1,300$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62728556.5%161 W · 124 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Cowboys50c1,268$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.2256852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Chiefs47c1,250$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5858650%43 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.