NFL · resolved market
Chiefs vs. Cowboys: O/U 51.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcab0d047676a0e223e7f30a84a29bab04aeb7351d8765fb22c1123f76103d25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9607…2d3abacked Over | 56c | 7,968$4,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,470.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +200.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 5,558$2,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,420.95 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 56c | 3,333$1,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.52 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 56c | 3,111$1,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,368.84 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 44c | 3,075$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.75 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 44c | 2,907$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.08 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Under | 46c | 2,412$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.25 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Over | 57c | 1,944$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.27 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Under | 43c | 999.99$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 45c | 963.6$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.42 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7209…b3c1backed Under | 45c | 666.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 44c | 601.44$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.88 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 595.36$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.46 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe13e…c564backed Over | 54c | 562.34$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.24 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 55c | 527.45$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.35 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…007bbacked Over | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Under | 48c | 499.63$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.23 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Under | 46c | 476.76$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.31 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 44c | 348$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.12 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…2aa8backed Over | 55c | 255.78$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.78 | 290 | 59.7%173 W · 117 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 45c | 241.18$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.53 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 55c | 185$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Over | 55c | 125.3$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Over | 75c | 110.54$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Over | 52c | 72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…9ad6backed Over | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…7975backed Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb5…c2adbacked Under | 47c | 42.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8db…bbddbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +51%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec1…dd29backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3415…034cbacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 44c | 28.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90cc…01a9backed Over | 56c | 28.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f24…46cebacked Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 51c | 24.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chiefs vs. Cowboys: O/U 51.5this page
- 1H Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)Cowboys won
- Chiefs vs. CowboysCowboys won
- Chiefs vs. Cowboys: 1H MoneylineCowboys won
- Chiefs vs. Cowboys: 1H O/U 26.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. Cowboys: 1H O/U 27.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. Cowboys: O/U 52.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. Cowboys: O/U 53.5Over won
- Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Chiefs (-7.5)Cowboys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.