NFL · resolved market
Chiefs vs. Cowboys: O/U 53.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3553ac8932a20080ac8120d8ddda1628c48e22b47d79a256479ffe35415e6c12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 53c | 45,000$23,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,850 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 47c | 20,700$9,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,971 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked Over | 47c | 14,522$6,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,696.55 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 47c | 4,886$2,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,573.72 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 4,474$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,374.33 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Under | 52c | 3,333$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 48c | 2,931$1,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.16 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Over | 49c | 2,490$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269.79 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Over | 47c | 1,053$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.32 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 53c | 779.96$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.31 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…8ae8backed Over | 49c | 714.29$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.29 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde46…a7afbacked Under | 52c | 573.75$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…58c7backed Over | 53c | 564.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.61 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 51c | 499.99$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Under | 52c | 275$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 53c | 214.23$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.54 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Over | 49c | 212.41$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 55c | 199.29$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.6 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a5…6721backed Under | 54c | 185.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9038…f74cbacked Under | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 51c | 125$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee8b…1610backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked Over | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cd…447ebacked Under | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 92 | 51.1%47 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chiefs vs. Cowboys: O/U 53.5this page
- 1H Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)Cowboys won
- Chiefs vs. CowboysCowboys won
- Chiefs vs. Cowboys: 1H MoneylineCowboys won
- Chiefs vs. Cowboys: 1H O/U 26.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. Cowboys: 1H O/U 27.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. Cowboys: O/U 51.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. Cowboys: O/U 52.5Over won
- Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Chiefs (-7.5)Cowboys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.