TailMyPicks
Market

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Chiefsof Chiefs, Lions
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$352,784
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$353,447

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $352,784 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Lions49c181,882$88,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88,776.9741851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Chiefs51c102,000$51,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,40031240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Chiefs52c76,749$39,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,844.9427454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Chiefs52c68,486$35,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,873.1218156.9%103 W · 78 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Lions48c31,122$14,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,938.5612352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b1…968abacked Lions49c20,420$10,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0067939.2%31 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02fc…2c31backed Chiefs51c15,000$7,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,349.971258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick38cpaid+44.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Lions48c12,082$5,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,798.5461148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Lions48c10,028$4,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,818.3331350.2%157 W · 156 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Lions48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,80024456.6%138 W · 106 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3134…1b18backed Lions49c8,163$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0009152.7%48 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb1e…88d5backed Lions57c7,941$4,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,526.35560%33 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Chiefs43c7,848$3,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,472.0341947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Chiefs53c5,661$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,660.714252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lions47c5,631$2,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,646.761,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Chiefs51c5,250$2,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,57525744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Chiefs51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,449.9810552.4%55 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f16…da10backed Lions51c4,934$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Lions49c3,295$1,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,614.5544652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Chiefs51c3,234$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,584.8983147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5df…2f2dbacked Lions49c3,061$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-37.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Chiefs52c3,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44024056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Lions49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98011740.2%47 W · 70 L-10.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Lions48c1,983$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.2837350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Chiefs52c1,923$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.082347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Lions49c1,500$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73826648.9%130 W · 136 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c86…366bbacked Lions49c1,500$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.52245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf341…d026backed Chiefs50c1,400$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7001855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Lions48c1,358$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.8439754.4%216 W · 181 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lions48c1,094$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5251,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Chiefs47c873.82$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.1325956.8%147 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed Chiefs52c800$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38412343.1%53 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf869…f264backed Lions52c618.35$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.58911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick40cpaid+3.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Chiefs48c540.29$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.9522450%112 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb02f…0673backed Lions52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2602737%10 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf48d…fe48backed Chiefs52c480$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.414949%73 W · 76 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x014d…144cbacked Chiefs52c450$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71b3…a5d6backed Chiefs51c431.37$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.373046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Lions52c400$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20814344.1%63 W · 80 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Chiefs52c400$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1927751.9%40 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7292…6bd3backed Chiefs51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.165334%18 W · 35 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x258e…d16cbacked Chiefs52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.628747.1%41 W · 46 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Chiefs52c236.42$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.4817741.8%74 W · 103 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Chiefs48c209.99$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.255345%249 W · 304 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Chiefs50c206$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1038845.5%40 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Lions49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10033047.9%158 W · 172 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b02…f3d9backed Lions49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021151.2%108 W · 103 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+28.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b80…657fbacked Chiefs51c204$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.9615746.5%73 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7daf…f1b3backed Lions49c202.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003040%12 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Chiefs52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969053.3%48 W · 42 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Chiefs47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10668446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4451…c6afbacked Lions49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984032.5%13 W · 27 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Lions50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013347.4%63 W · 70 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa54…c182backed Lions51c199.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.492634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-40.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4627…7c23backed Lions49c199.78$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.896055%33 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Chiefs48c183.74$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.3141248.5%200 W · 212 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Chiefs49c176.95$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.957259.7%43 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e3…68b9backed Lions49c122.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606839.7%27 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0078…bca0backed Lions49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5022745.4%103 W · 124 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Lions49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492835.7%10 W · 18 L-4.3wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-32.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Lions50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018350.3%92 W · 91 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe2c…4ae8backed Lions49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495259.6%31 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f55…535dbacked Chiefs52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+30.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Chiefs49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5124738.1%94 W · 153 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad5c…ac13backed Lions49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496036.7%22 W · 38 L-8.4wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-29.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Chiefs52c97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.7832347.4%153 W · 170 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Chiefs52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1512755.1%70 W · 57 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Chiefs49c93.23$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3756852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75b5…a1f2backed Lions49c92.24$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.22944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0338…4f11backed Lions49c90$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.13554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7701…24e6backed Chiefs51c86.35$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3116845.8%77 W · 91 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa936…4b8ebacked Lions49c81.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-63.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Chiefs52c80$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.41833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-35.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5f8…1affbacked Chiefs52c76.92$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.925440.7%22 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Lions59c71$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8964747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Lions50c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3515855.7%88 W · 70 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Chiefs48c63.94$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3283447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcba6…bb05backed Lions48c60.56$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0711450%57 W · 57 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Lions50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce09…6b0bbacked Lions50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4e3…2dd1backed Lions49c53.78$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.35666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c56…c18dbacked Lions49c51.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56e4…92bbbacked Chiefs52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+32.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x513a…7e3ebacked Lions44c45.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0011…74f0backed Lions49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206541.5%27 W · 38 L-7.0wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-21.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe727…5e8dbacked Lions49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017548%84 W · 91 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22b8…7b6ebacked Chiefs52c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.217060.6%103 W · 67 L+12.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7de7…ef81backed Lions50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick52cpaid-68.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe834…6407backed Lions49c39.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0488…aea5backed Lions52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204348.8%21 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f55…bae8backed Lions53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016048.1%77 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7b6…3158backed Lions53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203333.3%11 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d0f…a318backed Chiefs53c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.16100%6 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+103.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5318…2a91backed Chiefs51c25.49$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4910549.5%52 W · 53 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Lions48c23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0417454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e5d…7af4backed Lions50c23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2942…5c1bbacked Lions47c22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.341942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9fd…1fa0backed Chiefs50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101080%8 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+36.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.