NFL · resolved market
Lions vs. Chiefs: O/U 50.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78e75a26f84f693ad97f4427069a3d5cb54489ad889d3d98123892cce36c8379
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 48c | 24,702$11,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,914.86 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Over | 52c | 24,532$12,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,757.52 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 6,882$3,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,632.36 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Under | 58c | 5,577$3,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,342.29 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 42c | 5,415$2,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,286.45 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Over | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 53c | 2,832$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.98 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 2,562$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.77 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 48c | 1,841$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.39 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Over | 59c | 1,696$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.55 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Under | 47c | 509.51$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.04 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 54c | 450$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Under | 41c | 447.81$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.21 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 47c | 387.78$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.68 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…6879backed Over | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22aa…fa3dbacked Over | 54c | 266.52$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aec…7d3cbacked Over | 56c | 235.71$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…f1b3backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2838…32bbbacked Over | 54c | 175$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 148 | 60.8%90 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…435cbacked Over | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 43c | 117.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…8facbacked Over | 55c | 110$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…d3e8backed Over | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd15…6959backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 49c | 82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3212…634ebacked Over | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f23…b19ebacked Over | 54c | 73.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa910…12c3backed Over | 55c | 69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f2…118bbacked Over | 56c | 66.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Over | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda9c…3fddbacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa14…ebb0backed Over | 56c | 55.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Over | 59c | 49.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Under | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Under | 80c | 25.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lions vs. Chiefs: O/U 50.5this page
- Lions vs. ChiefsChiefs won
- Lions vs. Chiefs: O/U 51.5Under won
- Lions vs. Chiefs: O/U 52.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)Chiefs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.