TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Lions vs. Chiefs: O/U 52.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$286,063
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$287,097

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $286,063 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c33…0563backed Under55c67,636$37,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,184.8425956.8%147 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Over49c61,484$29,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,84220755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under50c54,665$27,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,336.0741851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Over51c51,419$26,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,277.1547738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Over45c31,361$14,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,112.4510061%61 W · 39 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Under55c19,993$10,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,996.9624456.6%138 W · 106 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Over44c18,943$8,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,335.4714351%73 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Over50c14,538$7,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,269.0516836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1c9…96d9backed Under50c14,270$7,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,135.052100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Under54c13,861$7,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,376.2419553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under54c12,263$6,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,590.383447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Under53c10,000$5,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,70024957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under52c8,504$4,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,062.21,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Over49c8,230$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00011649.1%57 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Over45c8,185$3,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,683.1912352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Over44c8,000$3,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,52020634.5%71 W · 135 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over46c7,500$3,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,45083147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under53c7,289$3,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,425.8351352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x383d…a9f2backed Over44c5,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2006349.2%31 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Over44c5,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2008959.6%53 W · 36 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1a87…4e00backed Over48c4,800$2,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3041942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Under51c3,476$1,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,685.9861148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Over45c3,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35017144.4%76 W · 95 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Over44c2,913$1,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,281.7210026%26 W · 74 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Over45c2,715$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,221.755048%24 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed Under56c2,679$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,178.5711744.4%52 W · 65 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf341…d026backed Under51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.781855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Under20c1,823$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,456.3164747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Over47c1,725$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.9841947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Under52c1,227$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.849245.7%42 W · 50 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Over50c1,200$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5947732.5%25 W · 52 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Over50c1,111$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.57444.6%33 W · 41 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd368…1889backed Over50c1,039$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.5113842%58 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Over46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46015044.7%67 W · 83 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Under49c810$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.15550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Over51c800$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40818044.4%80 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb356…0027backed Under51c800$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3921100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf833…bd99backed Under51c790$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7292…6bd3backed Under52c762.53$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.535334%18 W · 35 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Over50c601.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30012634.1%43 W · 83 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbde…a050backed Over50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3009940.4%40 W · 59 L-8.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x445e…007bbacked Over46c600$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2765156.9%29 W · 22 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+24.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under53c545.95$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.751,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb67…5ea3backed Over46c543$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.786046.7%28 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Over50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25023447.9%112 W · 122 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25026648.9%130 W · 136 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dcf…146ebacked Over47c493$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.716540%26 W · 39 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Under51c455$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.956650%33 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8159…8d5cbacked Under54c418.52$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.528043.8%35 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bce…558cbacked Under55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.6416275.3%122 W · 40 L+17.3wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+17.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Over50c340$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17028047.5%133 W · 147 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb123…0a15backed Under53c321$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.875248.1%25 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad0…3339backed Over50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+55.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ba…84d9backed Over50c275$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39ce…560cbacked Over50c274$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3630…0968backed Over50c273$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7e6…3003backed Over50c269$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76f…4b3abacked Over50c263$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Over48c260$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.559453.7%319 W · 275 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8819…ecd7backed Over50c259$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013347.4%63 W · 70 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28a1…435cbacked Over45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903250%16 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Under56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8831540.6%128 W · 187 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2567…2371backed Over46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2df4…3ffabacked Over47c196.6$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.45026%13 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick33cpaid+33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Under54c184.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.7333047.9%158 W · 172 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e92…cd3dbacked Over56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Under54c158.08$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.6531350.2%157 W · 156 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Over46c150$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6910453.8%56 W · 48 L+8.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+15.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7555…ce17backed Over49c122.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609348.4%45 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed Over50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606442.2%27 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92c9…64d1backed Over46c116.67$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.67540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Under54c115.8$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4341248.5%200 W · 212 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x666d…a046backed Under53c113.4$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74e6…99e8backed Over46c109.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.65038%19 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Over47c102.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4137350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Over49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-51.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x65d3…d153backed Under52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeeb…645fbacked Over50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.24per pick39cpaid-69.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x45e1…f42dbacked Under54c96.3$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.320733.8%70 W · 137 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6777…2612backed Under54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.595844.8%26 W · 32 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+19.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under55c89$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0577052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Under55c80$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3668446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fec…c965backed Over51c68.62$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecf4…9979backed Over50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308450%42 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.565152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb590…15d3backed Under56c53.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.574250%21 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Over46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2324243.4%105 W · 137 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x369e…d016backed Over48c41.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203345.5%15 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf9d…3ea9backed Over49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2026660.9%162 W · 104 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22a0…2916backed Over48c31.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155642.9%24 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9897…34e8backed Under50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c5…bf7abacked Under51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.72462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e5d…7af4backed Under54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Over48c28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.445679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a45…36dcbacked Under54c25.93$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.933941%16 W · 23 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-19.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7141…de63backed Under51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.