NFL · resolved market
Lions vs. Chiefs: O/U 51.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x940a562b34a922952b4c6f9e275a2f52f14b5f044f268ae53004d8303f4b211e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 47c | 42,519$19,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,534.94 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Over | 48c | 30,307$14,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,547.45 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Over | 48c | 17,621$8,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,457.99 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 53c | 15,873$8,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,412.81 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Under | 52c | 12,674$6,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,094.83 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Under | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 52c | 8,246$4,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,970.17 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 48c | 8,094$3,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,886.08 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 49c | 7,424$3,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,621.89 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Over | 49c | 6,615$3,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,241.09 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 5,105$2,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,482.24 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Under | 52c | 4,708$2,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,261.86 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 3,083$1,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,571.89 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 50c | 2,454$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 49c | 2,039$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.95 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 48c | 1,052$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.96 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b3…a5d6backed Over | 52c | 921.8$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.04 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 48c | 900$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Over | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 126 | 34.1%43 W · 83 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bc…73b7backed Over | 48c | 520$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2567…2371backed Over | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 49c | 345.77$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.62 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fef…5840backed Over | 48c | 333.33$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd148…6875backed Over | 51c | 309.73$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 48c | 180$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 48c | 83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…b48abacked Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b5…a1f2backed Over | 48c | 40.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5d…7af4backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Over | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 211 | 51.2%108 W · 103 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…64d1backed Under | 53c | 20.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80ac…adabbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lions vs. Chiefs: O/U 51.5this page
- Lions vs. ChiefsChiefs won
- Lions vs. Chiefs: O/U 50.5Under won
- Lions vs. Chiefs: O/U 52.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)Chiefs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.