Fed Rates · resolved market
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01d5f475cb30704216ae9906d369c0b2991cafec882ab4888a66ff11eb03e569
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,760,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,670,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,760,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes | 19c | 450,068$85,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85,727.34 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 77c | 309,664$239,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70,541.63 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x611c…c982backed Yes | 8c | 207,611$15,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,737.51 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 11c | 168,605$19,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,032.51 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93c…689cbacked Yes | 17c | 150,649$26,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,215.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x600b…42dcbacked Yes | 19c | 130,414$24,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,391.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 21c | 111,272$23,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,723.09 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 78c | 104,523$81,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,954.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda93…f09cbacked Yes | 17c | 100,000$17,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,450 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Yes | 12c | 99,288$11,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,790 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes | 19c | 95,211$18,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,446.36 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed No | 78c | 89,210$69,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,475.23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…4b9dbacked Yes | 20c | 85,492$16,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,848.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 76c | 78,962$59,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,334.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ee…2f9abacked Yes | 36c | 77,971$28,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,056.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 33c | 77,250$25,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,347.18 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked No | 79c | 76,397$60,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,206.95 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3537…56eabacked Yes | 17c | 75,413$12,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,906.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 17c | 74,493$12,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,557.38 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 21c | 68,620$14,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,142.39 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…79acbacked No | 71c | 67,984$48,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,630.74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 16c | 65,001$10,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,334.89 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8744…370bbacked Yes | 15c | 64,659$9,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,698.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 64,330$2,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,106.62 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 12c | 62,263$7,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,445.58 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a4…fa19backed Yes | 19c | 58,278$11,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,091.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4019…1453backed Yes | 19c | 56,042$10,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,855.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a36…bd73backed Yes | 16c | 54,380$8,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,943.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9978…a49ebacked Yes | 19c | 52,665$9,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,846.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 9c | 51,583$4,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,802.75 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…95e6backed No | 74c | 51,037$37,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,269.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x113a…89c0backed Yes | 17c | 47,714$7,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,993.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 12c | 45,758$5,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,522.43 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…4cdbbacked Yes | 8c | 45,442$3,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,849.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 14c | 44,333$6,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,213.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bf…2ab3backed Yes | 18c | 42,380$7,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,775.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba32…deaabacked Yes | 19c | 41,374$7,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,925.65 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed No | 78c | 40,985$31,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,994.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…795cbacked Yes | 16c | 38,561$6,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,156.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 74c | 38,106$28,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,005.29 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 11c | 36,754$4,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,094.59 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed Yes | 14c | 35,306$4,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,949.78 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4899…301bbacked Yes | 23c | 35,117$7,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,997.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x830e…7099backed Yes | 32c | 34,637$11,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,035.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 70c | 33,903$23,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,019.79 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa936…5aa4backed Yes | 22c | 30,575$6,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,628.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…e5fcbacked Yes | 17c | 30,546$5,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,300.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3c…1b01backed Yes | 26c | 30,000$7,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 75c | 30,000$22,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,600 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…9971backed Yes | 23c | 29,007$6,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,628.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf29f…5ccabacked Yes | 20c | 29,000$5,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,889.98 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…846fbacked Yes | 24c | 28,222$6,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,866.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 79c | 28,117$22,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,927.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 11c | 28,103$3,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,038.43 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 9c | 27,833$2,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,504.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…09f2backed Yes | 16c | 25,622$4,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,094.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 19c | 25,414$4,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,703.65 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…bab3backed Yes | 3c | 25,039$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb15…b905backed Yes | 12c | 25,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 13c | 24,775$3,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,220.7 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 33c | 24,769$8,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,227.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 23c | 24,018$5,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,609.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes | 9c | 23,760$2,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,077.52 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -78%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed Yes | 24c | 23,071$5,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,534.36 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked No | 76c | 23,005$17,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,470.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 9c | 23,000$2,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,070 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 10c | 21,900$2,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,180.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 29c | 21,510$6,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,195.9 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…974ebacked Yes | 12c | 20,658$2,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,478.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb540…b343backed Yes | 19c | 20,494$3,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,952.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…c36fbacked Yes | 18c | 20,173$3,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,649.64 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b12…bf0fbacked Yes | 22c | 20,000$4,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,319.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 13c | 20,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -41%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Yes | 17c | 20,000$3,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,382 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9c…5c70backed Yes | 20c | 19,995$3,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,999 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebd7…d5d5backed Yes | 25c | 19,904$4,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,975.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…79a7backed Yes | 4c | 19,737$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b0…30d1backed Yes | 25c | 19,579$4,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,907.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ac…c2aabacked Yes | 6c | 19,569$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.53 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…a496backed Yes | 23c | 19,433$4,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,555.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 13c | 19,231$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75a1…693fbacked Yes | 40c | 19,171$7,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,651.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x360c…1ca8backed Yes | 2c | 18,425$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24b1…48eebacked Yes | 15c | 17,682$2,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,588.42 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 12c | 17,558$2,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,043.94 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…42dabacked Yes | 5c | 17,381$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…f360backed Yes | 12c | 17,368$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes | 7c | 17,150$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.2 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8c…b195backed Yes | 11c | 17,009$1,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,845.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 66c | 17,000$11,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,850 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55a9…2c79backed Yes | 21c | 16,865$3,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,541.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b34…e24cbacked Yes | 21c | 16,837$3,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,497.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 16,687$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.73 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 14c | 16,678$2,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,297.87 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…af0fbacked Yes | 16c | 16,627$2,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,644.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2872…27cdbacked Yes | 19c | 16,543$3,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,154.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Yes | 21c | 16,458$3,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,472 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…5390backed Yes | 6c | 16,445$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…20aebacked Yes | 3c | 16,041$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1b…c20bbacked No | 79c | 15,865$12,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,331.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.