TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross less than $105m opening weekend?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$588,256
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$597,017

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $588,256 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x51fd…4272backed No2c43,780$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.9718719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa357…1045backed No1c26,150$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.55185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick13cpaid-93%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No31c13,877$4,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,318.683920.5%8 W · 31 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa099…d81fbacked Yes71c13,729$9,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,980.224316.3%7 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…dcd2backed No35c9,615$3,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,362.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93c8…bbb7backed No23c9,175$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,100.560%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked No24c7,013$1,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,654.981214.1%5 W · 116 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-85%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes70c6,522$4,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,976.3413150.4%66 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5440…59a7backed No2c6,251$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c35…1a76backed No3c5,575$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x777e…2836backed No18c5,555$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.950%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x006a…e170backed No2c5,001$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc929…88febacked No5c4,952$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked No3c4,912$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.36120%0 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes78c4,723$3,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.0332639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No11c4,704$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.076320.6%13 W · 50 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No1c4,500$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5601.7%1 W · 59 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-70.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No3c4,243$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.8267232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes68c4,223$2,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,368.135536.4%20 W · 35 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b50…43e8backed Yes78c3,698$2,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.65475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdb3…c1d4backed No1c3,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59e3…71d5backed No12c3,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb052…ff06backed No17c2,981$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.312114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-59.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38d1…8eb2backed No4c2,661$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No32c2,611$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.351717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-72.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes54c2,540$1,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,175.2716350.3%82 W · 81 L+24.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x8114…6efebacked No0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2829…52a4backed No0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42dd…48b7backed No1c2,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc620…2da3backed Yes69c2,400$1,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x684b…0601backed No57c2,346$1,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,344.031216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-75.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefdf…97edbacked No4c2,244$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda54…e7e3backed No5c2,125$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.7550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb61…a3aabacked Yes72c2,081$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.552050%10 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1ec…70a5backed No1c2,044$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcab1…b2b1backed No1c1,944$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-84.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked No20c1,936$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.3311625.9%30 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No7c1,823$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.2419133%63 W · 128 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f6f…726ebacked No5c1,500$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.52120%0 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes58c1,447$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.57839.7%31 W · 47 L+8.4wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbf1b…2b79backed No11c1,410$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc51…a30dbacked No4c1,315$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5350%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b15…387dbacked No5c1,257$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30d1…5733backed No5c1,201$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6116…f247backed No21c1,161$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.29119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.30per pick39cpaid-86.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9c85…9e34backed No10c1,141$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.75175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-84.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a79…d7adbacked No13c1,088$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed No27c1,056$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2811286.3%8 W · 120 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-77.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b3f…2703backed No2c975.43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No42c888$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.851811.1%2 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-80.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes57c858.13$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.195743.9%25 W · 32 L+9.6wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+60.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe45e…ebb0backed No12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-79.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x835b…6087backed No25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-74.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes57c800$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+71.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbce2…4483backed No5c780.41$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No17c732.71$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.076222.6%14 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80c4…4b5fbacked No2c724.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No17c687.1$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.5287033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No34c659.65$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.511040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+88.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x193f…efeabacked Yes58c600.37$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.372100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c72…ee4cbacked No8c576.43$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5159…e44bbacked Yes58c575$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.252250%11 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-1.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c3f…ff4bbacked No4c574.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9390%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xad0a…7898backed No4c550$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4114…b9acbacked No11c548.66$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d64…afbbbacked No5c529.91$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0815…d0ddbacked No4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x703c…e334backed No10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7cc…4952backed No9c499.98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3826…84efbacked No25c496.22$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1237414.9%11 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked No37c467.65$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.76837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-40.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7105…c107backed No32c458.33$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14570%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3a0…5113backed No5c438.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf32b…94cabacked No3c438.21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44f4…5231backed No19c400.91$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3195…a94fbacked No34c400$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13430%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c6b…29fdbacked No25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+44.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes65c394.2$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.851136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc70c…07a4backed No41c375.37$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.9119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-77.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadbc…d00fbacked No25c371.37$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.84110%0 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d6c…0bc2backed Yes79c366.62$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.7837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbee…dcf4backed No32c363.48$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ab…556bbacked No18c333.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No54c321.99$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.5518431%57 W · 127 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb2e…4d83backed No29c305.38$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.791546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf85b…5663backed Yes50c305$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.84050%20 W · 20 L+6.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+28.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x719d…4e73backed No8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-77.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04e3…69d1backed No10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77cf…0e71backed Yes67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66e7…24c2backed No4c300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.16540%2 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick10cpaid+110.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ee4…3ababacked No33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcf2…3a5ebacked No43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb860…d79bbacked No17c296.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a36…454bbacked No44c290$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.66640.9%27 W · 39 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x72a6…6b75backed No61c286.81$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.93728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick56cpaid-61.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed No11c250$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.51625%4 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-60.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fa2…0204backed No13c236.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1570%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbca5…eccabacked Yes58c230$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.21952.6%10 W · 9 L+3.7wins+0.19per pick33cpaid+166.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdd8d…a677backed No5c224.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87f9…9d8ebacked Yes39c222.83$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.93633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.