Movies · resolved market
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross less than $105m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78c311c856fc22431bae03b2b3d3fa74f7d0c9f46552619367c92208a7797b52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $588,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $597,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $588,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 2c | 43,780$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.97 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa357…1045backed No | 1c | 26,150$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.55 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -93%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 31c | 13,877$4,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,318.68 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 71c | 13,729$9,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,980.22 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…dcd2backed No | 35c | 9,615$3,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,362.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…bbb7backed No | 23c | 9,175$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked No | 24c | 7,013$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,654.98 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 70c | 6,522$4,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,976.34 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…59a7backed No | 2c | 6,251$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed No | 3c | 5,575$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777e…2836backed No | 18c | 5,555$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x006a…e170backed No | 2c | 5,001$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc929…88febacked No | 5c | 4,952$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked No | 3c | 4,912$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.36 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 78c | 4,723$3,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.03 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 11c | 4,704$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.07 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 4,500$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 3c | 4,243$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.82 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 68c | 4,223$2,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,368.13 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b50…43e8backed Yes | 78c | 3,698$2,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb3…c1d4backed No | 1c | 3,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59e3…71d5backed No | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed No | 17c | 2,981$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.31 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d1…8eb2backed No | 4c | 2,661$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 32c | 2,611$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.35 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 54c | 2,540$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.27 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8114…6efebacked No | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2829…52a4backed No | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42dd…48b7backed No | 1c | 2,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…2da3backed Yes | 69c | 2,400$1,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0601backed No | 57c | 2,346$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,344.03 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdf…97edbacked No | 4c | 2,244$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…e7e3backed No | 5c | 2,125$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…a3aabacked Yes | 72c | 2,081$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.55 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…70a5backed No | 1c | 2,044$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed No | 1c | 1,944$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 20c | 1,936$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.33 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 7c | 1,823$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.24 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6f…726ebacked No | 5c | 1,500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 58c | 1,447$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.5 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1b…2b79backed No | 11c | 1,410$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc51…a30dbacked No | 4c | 1,315$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b15…387dbacked No | 5c | 1,257$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…5733backed No | 5c | 1,201$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed No | 21c | 1,161$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.29 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 39cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed No | 10c | 1,141$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.75 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a79…d7adbacked No | 13c | 1,088$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed No | 27c | 1,056$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3f…2703backed No | 2c | 975.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 42c | 888$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.85 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes | 57c | 858.13$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.19 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +9.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…ebb0backed No | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x835b…6087backed No | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 57c | 800$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbce2…4483backed No | 5c | 780.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 17c | 732.71$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.07 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c4…4b5fbacked No | 2c | 724.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 17c | 687.1$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.52 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 34c | 659.65$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x193f…efeabacked Yes | 58c | 600.37$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…ee4cbacked No | 8c | 576.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…e44bbacked Yes | 58c | 575$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.25 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…ff4bbacked No | 4c | 574.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad0a…7898backed No | 4c | 550$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked No | 11c | 548.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d64…afbbbacked No | 5c | 529.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…d0ddbacked No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x703c…e334backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed No | 9c | 499.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked No | 25c | 496.22$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 37c | 467.65$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7105…c107backed No | 32c | 458.33$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…5113backed No | 5c | 438.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32b…94cabacked No | 3c | 438.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f4…5231backed No | 19c | 400.91$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3195…a94fbacked No | 34c | 400$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6b…29fdbacked No | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 65c | 394.2$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc70c…07a4backed No | 41c | 375.37$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.9 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadbc…d00fbacked No | 25c | 371.37$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.84 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6c…0bc2backed Yes | 79c | 366.62$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…dcf4backed No | 32c | 363.48$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ab…556bbacked No | 18c | 333.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 54c | 321.99$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.55 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…4d83backed No | 29c | 305.38$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.79 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 50c | 305$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.8 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed No | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed Yes | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…24c2backed No | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee4…3ababacked No | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf2…3a5ebacked No | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb860…d79bbacked No | 17c | 296.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 44c | 290$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.6 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72a6…6b75backed No | 61c | 286.81$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa2…0204backed No | 13c | 236.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…eccabacked Yes | 58c | 230$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +166.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8d…a677backed No | 5c | 224.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f9…9d8ebacked Yes | 39c | 222.83$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross less than $105m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $105-120m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $120-135m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $135-150m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross more than $150m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.