Movies · resolved market
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $135-150m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe88b88d1f39e2108ad8ee8b8c88fc043d1a21ac25c99b16d915ca82c0ee90ef2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,120,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $203,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,120,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6784…fb7cbacked Yes | 0c | 149,149$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89fd…b4ccbacked Yes | 0c | 148,130$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 147,962$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.49 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fab…a2fbbacked Yes | 0c | 146,232$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c7…2b05backed Yes | 0c | 146,198$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4b…c8fbbacked Yes | 0c | 145,824$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…541dbacked Yes | 0c | 145,593$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd1…d5fdbacked Yes | 0c | 143,243$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…19f0backed Yes | 0c | 141,630$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…f604backed Yes | 0c | 128,297$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4f…08edbacked Yes | 0c | 127,906$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1f…75e5backed Yes | 0c | 127,718$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6658…ee07backed Yes | 0c | 127,663$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797d…bc30backed Yes | 0c | 123,886$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ac…c9adbacked Yes | 0c | 123,438$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…cf68backed Yes | 0c | 122,920$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c4…05debacked Yes | 0c | 112,954$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x803b…834ebacked Yes | 0c | 105,435$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077b…54ddbacked Yes | 0c | 101,247$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…7202backed Yes | 0c | 101,142$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf961…fcf3backed Yes | 0c | 100,623$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x921a…0eaebacked Yes | 0c | 92,917$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f7…3ba3backed Yes | 0c | 83,064$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…3c14backed Yes | 0c | 21,670$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ff…2cd2backed Yes | 0c | 11,562$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…2ed8backed Yes | 1c | 9,100$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 1c | 8,825$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.36 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 7c | 4,660$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.87 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…5733backed Yes | 1c | 4,341$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…ff4bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,210$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x006a…e170backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes | 8c | 3,722$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.74 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 2c | 3,702$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.55 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253e…0fe6backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…0064backed Yes | 1c | 1,780$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 3c | 1,365$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2216…4accbacked Yes | 1c | 1,361$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…e7e3backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc929…88febacked Yes | 6c | 860.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…bbb7backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc70c…07a4backed Yes | 8c | 483$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7105…c107backed Yes | 9c | 330$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 6c | 325$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f9…9d8ebacked Yes | 10c | 222.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 10c | 175$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfac6…6c64backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 10c | 132.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $135-150m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $105-120m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $120-135m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross less than $105m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross more than $150m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.