Movies · resolved market
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $120-135m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1966b611453bf5b98ee43e77853d803e844f90a02a368b2836686856d8a1564d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $453,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $172,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $453,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 123,904$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.87 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 0c | 47,299$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ba…6626backed Yes | 0c | 12,924$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ccf3backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 2c | 9,174$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.07 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc929…88febacked Yes | 2c | 8,982$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…0c2fbacked Yes | 1c | 8,242$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes | 13c | 3,649$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.17 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…5733backed Yes | 1c | 3,497$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x006a…e170backed Yes | 1c | 2,960$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,143$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.04 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…ff4bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,124$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 2,053$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 4c | 1,945$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,742$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 5c | 1,622$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.96 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 1,524$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aed…9d25backed Yes | 1c | 1,432$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2216…4accbacked Yes | 1c | 1,384$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…e7e3backed Yes | 1c | 1,288$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…0064backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4463…e6e7backed Yes | 8c | 800$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…bbb7backed Yes | 6c | 750$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 2c | 615.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc6…9988backed Yes | 6c | 578$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc70c…07a4backed Yes | 8c | 449.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 12c | 310$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87f9…9d8ebacked Yes | 15c | 222.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7105…c107backed Yes | 13c | 217.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 9c | 205.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…1ccebacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfac6…6c64backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85fe…dedfbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $120-135m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $105-120m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $135-150m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross less than $105m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross more than $150m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.